Land market likely to remain strong

星展集团Andy YEE,Carol WU,Danielle Wang,Ken HE

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　　Project of the week: COLI- Glory City. We recently visited COLI’s (688.HK, BUY) Guangzhou Glory City in Luogang District. The project is selling at Rmb15k/sm to Rmb16k/sm with fittings, compared with Rmb12k/sm in its first phase which was launched in Sep last year. Prices are expected to increase to Rmb20-25k/sm soon, given the recent land price surge. Kaisa bought a site near the area at Rmb11,812/sm, compared with COLI’s land cost of c.Rmb 4k/sm. This project has Rmb4bn saleable resources in 2013 and ytd sales have exceeded its FY13 target of Rmb3bn, compared with Rmb1bn sales in 2012. Although the project only has limited saleable units left, walk-in traffic to its sales office was still good (eight group visitors). Based on an ASP of Rmb16k/sm, the project should deliver decent gross and net margins, estimated at 33% and 16% respectively. 　　Policy update: Land market expected to remain strong. Although Beijing is likely to meet its 2013 commodity residential land supply target of 8.5m sm soon, Oct land supply will still be high (1.5m sm). The Shenzhen government has recently called for the acceleration of land supply to ensure that FY13 residential land supply is 20% higher than the average of the past five years. Hangzhou will launch over 550k sm of land at a total starting price of Rmb3.6bn for auction in the coming weeks. Following Country Garden, more big names would have likely tapped into the overseas debt market to beef up their coffers for land acquisitions. Hence, we expect the land market to continue being strong.