作者：Ting Lu ，TJ Bond

类别：研究报告

格式：pdf，16页，英文，303k

日期：2007.11.27

摘要：

Lending freeze: Clear signal, small impact
China’s bank regulators have put their brakes on credit growth. The impact on
GDP growth will probably be small, but the signal is clear. China intends to tighten
macro policy enough to modestly slow the economy.
Not just moral suasion or “window guidance”
This time around, we believe it is not just moral suasion and we anticipate a
plunge in newly increased loan in the remainder of 2007. Actually, the
resoluteness and determination shown by the bank regulators in the enforcement
have not been seen since April 2004. However, the so-called “lending freeze” is
not to stop all new lending as banks can still have rooms to extend new loans.
Overall impact on real economy is limited
Although efforts to control lending have greatly intensified, we expect the impact
on GDP growth will be small because: (1) newly increased loans this year have
amounted to RMB3.5tn, big enough to keep the economy rolling; (2) the corporate
sector has raised RMB538bn from the booming stock markets this year; (3) profits
in the corporate sector are at a historical high; and (4) banks have leeway to
increase lending even without inflating their loan balance.
Some sectors will shoulder more burdens
The “lending freeze” started with mortgage loans, so real estate brokers and
agents will be affected first. Special rules in benchmarking bank loans have forced
banks to readjust the composition of their loan portfolios by stopping discounting
receivables, dealing a blow to some sectors. Finally, stricter control on lending
may also throw out the baby with the bath water by denying loans essential for
some sound enterprises.
Investment implications
The macro backdrop for equities is becoming more unclear. From the positive
side, we expect inflation to fall. From the negative side, policy is being tightened
and growth will slow (but remain very high). Stricter control on credit growth may
postpone or slow some other tightening policies, but is unlikely to serve as full
substitute. We expect China to continue raising interest rates and allow a faster
appreciation of the renminbi.

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-11-29 19:34:44编辑过]