你好。我最近老师也在说这个问题，我们讨论一下吧。（我也是一知半解，说的不好请见谅）
影响ＦＸ的几个因素：
１.relative inflation rate: the country with the higher inflation rate will tend to see its currency devalue relative to other countries with lower inflation rates.(purchasing power parity)

2. relative real interest rate:  countries with higher interest rate might attract more capital and have a stronger exchange rate.

3. relative economic growth rate: higher economic growth rate, more capital

4. demand for a country's goods and services and financial assets: higher demand , greater currency

5. government policy: restriction on foreign exchange , trade and investment can depress a currency's value.

6. rapid productivity growth: higher productivity growth, greater currency.

7. current account: 1) large current account deficit can foreshadow currency problems, since it implies a large amount of foreign capital is needed to finance current spending levels.(我自己很不确定这是应该造成贬值还是升值，按理说的话，外资注入，似乎是会让它增值。。。)   2）trade deficit: indicates the currency is overvalued and needs  to fall.

主要就是这几个原因吧，还有一些关于risk的因素也会使得exchange rate变化。。
对于你说的这个问题，我认为是的，ZF抛售会让汇率下降。

此外，我想请问你，forward FX transaction 的意义何在啊？我不懂这个了，，我觉得和期货差不多，求科普。。O(∩_∩)O谢谢

关于7， current account deficit意味着需要用本币去购买外币来进口商品，央行外汇储备减少，或者外债增加；如果国内消费继续依赖大量进口的话，人们会对本币信心不足，本币贬值。

Forward跟期货一样都可以用来做风险管理，当然speculation你也制止不了。

好的！现在清楚了~谢谢你~