1. 资源名称：How Big Could SWFs Be by 2015?

2. 作者：Morgan Stanley

3. 资源类别：研究报告

4. 资源大小、格式、页数：44.3kB  .pdf  6 pages

Answer: US$12 trillion.

Bottom line. I’ve long stressed the importance of
sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), and underscored that
they are already quite large. I believe that SWFs will
become absolutely massive in size in the not-toodistant
future, and will have powerful implications for
the financial markets, as I have discussed in the past. I
am increasingly concerned about financial
globalization, as a reaction to the emergence of these
funds

Rapid growth in size in the coming years. My
calculations show that the total size of the SWFs could
reach US$12 trillion by 2015, and surpass the size of
the world’s total official reserves within five years
(before 2011).

Non-oil Asian exporters becoming as important as
oil exporters. At present, SWFs derived from oil and
gas exports account for some two-thirds of total SWFs.
But by 2015, I believe that these two groups will be
roughly the same size — at around US$6 trillion each,
with China’s Huei Lian Company being the singlelargest
SWF.

Rising risk of financial globalization. The SWFs of
tomorrow are likely to be more interested in strategic
companies that possess higher-tech capabilities or
techniques. While the reaction of the US to a potential
bid for a firm like this from a SWF is clear, it is not so
certain how the UK, Australian or Canadian
government would react. In any case, foreign investors
evolving from lenders to owners will likely trigger
defensive reactions from the recipient countries, which
may, in turn, undermine globalization.

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-12-10 13:01:01编辑过]