1. 资源名称：Semiannual Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies

2. 作者：U.S. Treasury

3. 资源类别：半年度报告

4. 资源大小、格式、页数：307kB  .pdf

包括以下几个文件：

2007_FXReport                                                       35 pages

2007_Appendix-1_Patterns of Indicators                 3 pages

2007_Appendix-2_China's Trade Data                    5 pages

2007_Appendix-3_SWF                                           3 pages

Report to Congress on
International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies

June 2007

This report reviews developments in international economic and exchange rate policies, focusing
on the second half of 20061, and is required under the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act
of 1988 (the “Act”)2,3.

Major Findings:
• Global growth remains very robust. It increased to 5.4 percent in 2006, the fastest annual
rate in over thirty years.4 The sustained increase in global growth primarily reflects the very
strong performance in emerging market and developing countries.

• Global imbalances remain a key issue on the international agenda, and reducing these
imbalances is a shared responsibility. Some rebalancing is underway and the U.S. current
account deficit has fallen from its peak, but more needs to be done to rebalance global
demand in a manner that sustains strong global growth.

• The U.S. economy is contributing to a healthy global economy. Growth is poised to pick up
over the course of 2007. The fiscal deficit fell to 1.9 percent of GDP in FY2006, down from
a recent peak of 3.6 percent in FY2004. The U.S. labor market remains healthy and core
measures of inflation have stabilized or eased.

• Growth in Europe and Japan has been well above recent five-year averages. To rebalance
global demand, Europe and Japan will need to implement further structural reforms and
sustain and boost their respective paces of domestic demand growth.

• Several oil exporters have accumulated large current account surpluses. These countries can
help sustain robust global growth by: (1) increasing expenditure on oil production capacity,
(2) judiciously increasing spending to enhance potential growth and diversify economies, and
(3) strengthening monetary policy management, where appropriate, by, among other things,
moving toward more flexible exchange rates.

• China has achieved exceptionally rapid growth. However, its growth has become severely
unbalanced - dependent on exports and investment and characterized by very high savings,
weak consumption, and an inflexible exchange rate.

• Heavy foreign exchange market intervention by China’s central bank to manage the currency
tightly has led to excessive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and a quick increase
in domestic liquidity. Rapidly expanding domestic liquidity increases the risks of
overheating, a build-up of new non-performing loans leading to banking sector stress, and
asset bubbles. These trends clearly increase the risk of a renewed boom-bust cycle, which
would be quite harmful for the global economy.

• In addition to economic rebalancing within China, allowing the currency to adjust is a matter
of international interest and responsibility, with critical implications for the smooth
functioning of the world’s trading system and the adjustment of global imbalances.

• China should not hesitate any longer to take far more vigorous action to rebalance its
economy, promote immediate RMB movement to tackle the currency’s undervaluation, and
achieve far greater flexibility in the exchange rate regime.

• At the second session of the U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) held on May 22
and 23, Chinese and U.S. officials discussed the Chinese government’s reform agenda.
Chinese officials emphasized the priority they place on continued implementation of reforms
to address economic imbalances and to shift growth toward consumption and away from
investment and exports. They also acknowledged the role of exchange rate reform in that
process.

• The Department of the Treasury concluded that, although the Chinese currency is
undervalued, China did not meet the technical requirements for designation under the terms
of Section 3004 of the Act during the period under consideration. Treasury was unable to
determine that China’s exchange rate policy was carried out for the purpose of preventing
effective balance of payments adjustment or gaining unfair competitive advantage in
international trade.

• Even though the Treasury has not designated China pursuant to the Act, Treasury forcefully
raises the Chinese exchange rate regime with Chinese authorities at every available
opportunity and will continue to do so. China’s exchange rate has been a prominent feature
of the SED, G-7 discussions with China, and G20 and IMF Board deliberations.

• Treasury also concluded that no other major trading partner of the United States met the
technical requirements for designation under the Act during the period.

[此贴子已经被作者于2007-12-10 14:29:18编辑过]