ICF_LONG TERM CRUDE OIL SUPPLY AND PRICES

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 1
Background................................................................................................................ 1
The Report................................................................................................................. 2
Modeling Future Uncertainty...................................................................................... 2
World Oil Resources and Peak Production................................................................ 3
Crude Oil Production - Selected Model Results......................................................... 5
Crude Oil Demand - Potential Impact of Greenhouse Gas Emission Limits .............. 9
Primary Energy Production ...................................................................................... 10
Effect of Short Term Market Intangibles................................................................... 11
Crude Oil Pricing...................................................................................................... 12
Implications for California......................................................................................... 13
Chapter 1: Introduction and Background....................................................................... 17
Introduction .............................................................................................................. 17
Background.............................................................................................................. 20
Chapter 2: Methodological Approach ............................................................................ 27
Input Parameters ..................................................................................................... 28
Fixed Resource Energy Sources ............................................................................. 34
Other Energy Sources ............................................................................................. 54
Model Cases............................................................................................................ 55
Chapter 3: Market Intangibles ....................................................................................... 57
Stock Levels ............................................................................................................ 57
Spare Production Capacity ...................................................................................... 60
Investment Levels .................................................................................................... 62
Decline of the Dollar................................................................................................. 65
Hedge Funds ........................................................................................................... 67
Market Structure ...................................................................................................... 68
Geopolitical Events .................................................................................................. 69
Strategic Petroleum Reserves ................................................................................. 70
Short Term Impact of Intangible Market Factors...................................................... 71
Chapter 4: Results......................................................................................................... 73
Aggregation of Results............................................................................................. 73
Population................................................................................................................ 74
GDP......................................................................................................................... 76
Primary Energy Use, Reference Case..................................................................... 79
Primary Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Policy ................................................... 84
Energy Production ................................................................................................... 87
Comparison with Other World Energy Forecasts................................................... 100
Crude Oil Prices..................................................................................................... 106
Implications for California....................................................................................... 109
Endnotes ..................................................................................................................... 112
Bibliography ................................................................................................................ 115