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Morgan Stanley-Japan/HK/China/ASEAN Economic Outlook 2014


Japan Economic Outlook 2014: Crunch Year for Abenomics
We maintain a guarded outlook for 2014, trim for 2015: We have modified our forecasts for Japan’s economy in conjunction with our revisions to our team’s global outlook. For 2014, we remain cautious (real GDP +0.6% in F3/15, +1.3% in C2014), and for 2015, we tone down our growth forecasts (to +1.3% in F3/16, +1.1% in C2015).

Hong Kong Economics 2014 Outlook: A Tale of Two Forces and Two Halves
Growth and inflation to moderate in 2014: We expect both GDP growth and inflation to moderate in 2014. Both our 2014 growth and inflation forecasts of 2.7% and 3.6% are slightly below current consensus estimates of 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively.

China Economics: More Headwinds before Reform Dividend to Help in the Long Run
We fine-tune our 2014 growth forecast to 7.2% YoY and lift our 2015 forecast to 7.4% YoY, up from 7.1% and 6.9% previously. Our forecast revision is based on: 1) growth has largely stabilized in 2H13 against a benign policy setting; and 2) the expectation of profound reforms from the 3rd Plenary to be implemented starting in 1H2014.
However, we think headwinds from tighter financial conditions will likely tilt the risk to the downside on domestic demand growth in 2014. As more impact from reform measures starts to filter into the economy, we expect a better outlook in 2015.

ASEAN Economics 2014 Outlook: Global Transitions & Local Quirks
What’s new? 2014 likely marks a year of transition for the global economy, and four factors will drive the ASEAN growth outlook, in our view: (1) global growth transition from a bumpy, brittle and below-par recovery to a sounder, safer and more sustainable expansion would help export-oriented economies; (2) a US Fed QE transition would create exogenous tightening effects on ASEAN domestic demand from rising real rates; (3) China’s transition from leverage-driven high growth to reform-driven lower growth would affect commodity prices with implications for ASEAN’s terms-of-trade, and (4) ASEAN’s own rebalancing, i.e., growth model transition, and idiosyncratic factors would also bear on the macro outcome.