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Table of Contents
Foreword xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Selected Abbreviations xv
Overview 1
Strong growth in 2006 probably represents a cyclical peak 2
The expansion in capital flows was led by equity, as private sources eclipsed official 2
The globalization of corporate finance offers significant benefits for developing countries 2
Little progress has been made in scaling up aid 4
Good policies need to be sustained and extended in managing the upcoming adjustment 4
Chapter 1 The Outlook for Developing Economies 7
Summary of the medium-term outlook 7
The global outlook 8
Inflation, interest rates, and global imbalances 15
World trade 21
Commodity markets 23
A period of uncertainty 28
Notes 32
References 33
Chapter 2 Financial Flows to Developing Countries: Recent Trends and Prospects 35
Capital market developments in 2006 37
Private debt market developments 41
Private equity market developments 48
Official development assistance 54
Low-income countries’ access to private debt markets 58
Prospects for capital flows 62
Annex 1: Commercial Debt Restructuring 65
Developments between April 2006 and March 2007 65
Annex 2: Debt Restructuring with Official Creditors 68
Notes 69
References 69
G L O B A L D E V E L O P M E N T F I N A N C E 2 0 0 7
Chapter 3 The Globalization of Corporate Finance in Developing Countries 73
The rapidly evolving corporate sector in emerging economies 75
Factors shaping corporate access to international finance 84
Prospects and risks 94
An agenda for strengthening the transparency of corporate governance 100
Annex: Econometric Methodology and Estimation of Corporate Bond Spreads 103
Notes 105
References 106
Appendix: Regional Outlooks 109
East Asia and the Pacific 109
Europe and Central Asia 114
Latin America and the Caribbean 120
Middle East and North Africa 126
South Asia 131
Sub-Saharan Africa 136
Notes 143
Reference 144
Tables
1.1 The global outlook in summary 9
1.2 Simulated impact of an increase of 200 basis points in emerging-market spreads 28
1.3 Simulated impact of a prolonged recession in the United States 30
1.4 Grain price forecast 30
1.5 Estimated poverty impact of a 40 percent increase in rice and wheat prices in selected
countries 31
2.1 Net capital flows to developing countries, 1998–2006 37
2.2 Repayments by selected developing countries to official creditors, 2006 41
2.3 Private bond flows to developing countries, 1998–2006 42
2.4 Cross-border bank lending to developing countries, by region, 1998–2006 43
2.5 Cross-border loan commitments to developing countries, by region, 2006 43
2.6 Net short-term debt flows to developing countries, 2006 44
2.7 Major prepayments to private creditors, 2006 45
2.8 Net portfolio equity flows to developing countries, 2000–06 48
2.9 Ten largest cross-border initial public offerings in 2006 49
2.10 International equity prices, 2004–06 49
2.11 Net FDI flows to developing countries, 1998–2006 51
2.12 Major privatizations, mergers, and acquisitions in 2006 51
2.13 Net disbursements of official development assistance, 1990–2006 55
2.14 Bilateral ODA disbursements to 10 largest recipient countries, 2003–05 56
3.1 Capital raised through equity issues, bond issues, and syndicated bank borrowing
by firms in selected middle-income countries, 1998–2006 77
3.2 Performance indicators of selected developing countries 78
3.3 Foreign debt contracted by developing-country corporations, 1999–2006 79
3.4 International borrowing by banks in 10 middle-income countries, 2004–06 80
3.5 Correlation of mature and developing stock market indexes 90
3.6 Segmentation of emerging-market equities from world markets 91
3.7 Performance and vulnerability of top foreign borrowers compared with other banks, selected
aggregates, 2000–05 100
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S
3A.1 Regression results of analysis of at-issue corporate bond spreads 104
A.1 East Asia and Pacific forecast summary 109
A.2 Net capital flows to East Asia and Pacific 111
A.3 East Asia and Pacific country forecasts 113
A.4 Europe and Central Asia forecast summary 114
A.5 Net capital flows to Europe and Central Asia 116
A.6 Europe and Central Asia country forecasts 117
A.7 Latin America and the Caribbean forecast summary 120
A.8 Net capital flows to Latin America and the Caribbean 123
A.9 Latin America and the Caribbean country forecasts 124
A.10 Middle East and North Africa forecast summary 127
A.11 Net capital flows to the Middle East and North Africa 129
A.12 Middle East and North Africa country forecasts 130
A.13 South Asia forecast summary 132
A.14 Net capital flows to South Asia 134
A.15 South Asia country forecasts 134
A.16 Sub-Saharan Africa forecast summary 136
A.17 Net capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa 139
A.18 Sub-Saharan Africa country forecasts 140
Figures
1.1 U.S. industrial production growth 10
1.2 Regional growth 12
1.3 Developing-country industrial production grwoth 12
1.4 Inflation in high-income countries 15
1.5 Inflation in selected countries 16
1.6 Real policy interest rates, by region 17
1.7 Spreads on emerging-market bonds compared with 10-year U.S. Treasuries 17
1.8 Spreads on emerging-market debt and subprime corporate bonds in 2007 18
1.9 Emerging-market stock market valuations 18
1.10 U.S. trade balance is improving 18
1.11 Growth in domestic demand, by region 19
1.12 Movements in exchange rates 19
1.13 Difference between U.S. and Japanese/European interest rates 20
1.14 Current account balances 20
1.15 Foreign exchange reserves 21
1.16 Sources of export growth for high-income countries 22
1.17 Sources of export revenues for developing countries 22
1.18 Commodity prices 23
1.19 Prices of selected metals 23
1.20 Agricultural prices 24
1.21 Oil prices 25
1.22 Spare oil-production capacity within OPEC 26
1.23 Demand for oil 26
1.24 Change in sources of oil supply 27
1.25 Expected growth in non-OPEC oil production 27
1.26 Housing sector investment 29
1.27 Simulated impact of a grain-sector supply shock on selected developing countries 31
2.1 Net capital flows to developing countries, 1990–2006 38
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G L O B A L D E V E L O P M E N T F I N A N C E 2 0 0 7
2.2 Net debt and equity flows, 1990–2006 38
2.3 Foreign exchange reserves relative to GDP in developing countries, 1998–2006 39
2.4 Changes in credit ratings of sovereign debt issued by emerging-market
economies, 2001–06 39
2.5 Emerging-market bond spreads, January 2006–March 2007 39
2.6 Monthly changes in emerging-market bond spreads in select countries since 1990 40
2.7 Net official debt flows to developing countries, 1998–2006 40
2.8 Net private debt flows to developing countries, 1994–2006 41
2.9 Private bond flows to developing countries, 1994–2006 42
2.10 Concentration of cross-border loan commitments, 1998–2006 43
2.11 Cross-border syndicated lending to low- and lower-middle-income countries,
by region, 2004–06 44
2.12 Bond issuance by sovereign and corporate sectors, 1994–2006 45
2.13 Long-term external debt as a share of GDP in developing countries,
by type of debt, 1994–2006 45
2.14 Public debt as a share of GDP in 28 largest emerging-market economies, 1998–2006 46
2.15 Share of domestic debt held by nonresidents, selected countries, 2002 and 2006 47
2.16 Bond issuance by developing countries by credit grade, 1996–2006 47
2.17 Loan commitments to developing countries by credit grade, 1990–2006 47
2.18 Average spread across all loan commitments, 1990–2006 48
2.19 International equity prices, January 2000–March 2007 49
2.20 Net FDI inflows to developing countries, 1990–2006 50
2.21 Concentration of net FDI inflows to developing countries, 1997–2006 53
2.22 FDI income relative to GDP, 1990–2006 53
2.23 Net ODA disbursements by DAC donors, 1990–2006 55
2.24 Net ODA disbursements to Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2005 56
2.25 Emergency relief provided by DAC donors, 1990–2006 57
2.26 Proportion of developing countries that accessed private debt markets at
least once, 1980–2006 59
2.27 Proportion of developing countries that accessed private debt markets, 1980–2006 59
2.28 Emerging-market bond spreads in June 1997, September 1998, and March 2007 62
2.29 Change in emerging-market equity prices, June 1997–September 1998 62
2.30 World GDP growth and net equity flows as a percentage of GDP, 1990–2009 63
2.31 World GDP growth and net debt flows as a percentage of GDP, 1990–2009 63
3.1 Foreign capital raised by developing-country corporations, 1998–2006 76
3.2 Foreign companies listed on major global stock exchanges, 1998–2006 76
3.3 Trends in corporate debt and industrial production, 1994–2006 79
3.4 Foreign borrowing by companies from emerging-market countries, by region, 1990–2006 79
3.5 International bond issuance by sovereign governments and corporations, 1990–2006 82
3.6 International bond issuance by public and private corporations, 1990–2006 82
3.7 Average spread of emerging-market corporate bonds against U.S. Treasury bonds,
by grade, 1993–2006 83
3.8 Notional value of global credit default swaps, 2002–06 85
3.9 Five-year spreads on CDSs and ASWs 85
3.10 Spreads on U.S. credit derivative index, 2005–07 85
3.11 Distribution of global debt and equity capital, 2005 88
3.12 Spreads on investment-grade corporate bonds from developing and developed countries,
1996–2005 88
3.13 Correlation in mature debt and equity markets 89
3.14 Volatility measures in mature equity markets, 2002–07 89
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T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S
3.15 Correlation of equity returns in emerging markets and world markets,
February 1992–January 2007 90
3.16 Capital account openness in developed and developing countries 91
3.17 Systematic movement of emerging-market equities with world markets 91
3.18 Effect of selected characteristics of bond issues on at-issue spreads 93
3.19 Number of listed companies and amount of equity raised on selected stock
exchanges, 2006 94
3.20 Size of global derivative markets, June 2006 97
3.21 Implied cost of equity in emerging markets, 1992–2006 98
3.22 Net debt-to-equity ratios for nonfinancial corporations in emerging markets, 1985–2005 98
3.23 Average maturity of issues by financial and nonfinancial corporations, 1990–2006 98
3.24 Foreign borrowing by the banking sector and domestic private credit growth in developing
countries, 2001–05 99
3.25 Average foreign loan maturity contracted by commercial banks in select developing
countries, 2000–06 99
3.26 Asset growth of largest foreign borrowers versus country asset growth, 2005 100
3.27 Short-term volatility in emerging market currencies, January 2006–April 2007 102
A.1 Chinese industrial production 110
A.2 Inflation in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand 110
A.3 No permanent impact on inflation of a removal of energy subsidies in Indonesia 111
A.4 Building inflationary pressure in Europe and Central Asia 115
A.5 Short-term debt in selected countries of Europe and Central Asia, Q3 2006 120
A.6 Contribution of consumption, investment, and exports to GDP growth in
Latin America and the Caribbean 121
A.7 Rising inflation in selected countries of the Middle East and North Africa 128
A.8 Stock market valuations in the Middle East and North Africa 129
A.9 Strong workers’ remittances in South Asia 133
A.10 Real interest rates in South Asia 133
A.11 Ratio of nominal investment to nominal GDP among Sub-Saharan oil
importers 137
A.12 ODA (net of debt relief) in selected Sub-Saharan African countries, 2003–05 138
Boxes
2.1 Foreign direct investment in the oil and gas sector 52
2.2 Remittance flows to developing countries 54
3.1 A profile of developing-country companies that access global financial markets 81
3.2 The relationship between emerging-market sovereign and corporate bond spreads 84
3.3 Globalization and the growth of transnational companies in the developing world 86
3.4 Determinants of emerging corporate bond spreads 92
3.5 Foreign company listings on major financial centers continue to grow 96
A.1 New GDP estimates for Brazil 121