Asia Ex-Japan Weekly Economic Monitor  

GLOBAL LETTER: NEW YEAR STOCK-TAKE

While still early days, our Outlook 2008 forecasts look to be on track. We expect global growth to slow, but not to tank.

OVERVIEW: SIGNS OF AN EXPORT-LED SLOWDOWN

Recent data, while still quite strong, are showing increasing signs of an export-led slowdown in Asia ex-Japan.

PREVIEW

China's trade surplus is likely to set a new record in December as exporters front-loaded shipments ahead of another round of export tax hikes. South Korea and Indonesia should keep rates unchanged in the face of benign inflation and an uncertain growth outlook.

ASIA OUTLOOK: FIVE THEMES AND THREE RISKS

For our core view of a soft landing for the global economy, we highlight five key themes.

CHINA OUTLOOK: THE UNMASKING OF OVERCAPACITY

An export-led slowdown could reveal the severity of overcapacity in China.

INDIA OUTLOOK: SEEING THROUGH THE SOFT PATCH

With the right reforms, India can achieve a potential economic growth rate of 10%.

KOREA OUTLOOK: SHIFTING DOWN A GEAR

We doubt that domestic demand can fully offset slowing exports in 2008.

AUSTRALIA OUTLOOK: DELAYED REACTION

Strong momentum in domestic spending growth is unlikely to last.

[此贴子已经被angelboy于2008-7-29 16:35:59编辑过]