Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy
麦肯锡全球研究院：将会改变生活方式，商业模式和全球经济的未来技术热点


James Manyika
Michael Chui
Jacques Bughin
Richard Dobbs
Peter Bisson
Alex Marrs

The noise about the next big thing can make it difficult to identify which technologies truly matter. Here we attempt to sort through the many claims to identify the technologies that have the greatest potential to drive substantial economic impact and disruption by 2025 and to identify which potential impacts leaders should know about. Important technologies can come in any field or emerge from any scientific discipline, but they share four characteristics: high rate of technology change, broad potential scope of impact, large economic value that could be affected, and substantial potential for disruptive economic impact. Many technologies have the potential to meet these criteria eventually, but leaders need to focus on technologies with potential impact that is near enough at hand to be meaningfully anticipated and prepared for. Therefore, we focused on technologies that we believe have significant potential to drive economic impact and disruption by 2025.
关于下一个大东西的噪音可以使它很难确定哪些技术真正的问题。在这里，我们试图通过许多要求进行排序，以确定有到2025年将推动重大的经济影响和破坏，并确定潜在影响的领导人应该了解哪些最有潜力的技术。重要的技术就可以派上任何领域或从任何科学学科出现，但它们共享四大特点：高速率的技术变革，广泛潜在影响的范围，可能会受到影响较大的经济价值，以及大量的潜在破坏性经济影响。许多技术来满足这些标准的最终潜力，但领导者需要把重点放在技术与足够近在手边，以便进行有意义的预期和准备的潜在影响。因此，我们专注于技术，我们相信有显著的潜力，到2025年，以推动经济的影响和破坏。