瑞银(UBS)中国报告：One Not-So-Scary Chart
PDF格式6页  发布日期:22 February 2008  作者:Jonathan Anderson

Should we be worried?
With the recent spate of price data in the US and EU leading fears of a “stagflationary” recession, many
investors are once again turning to the question of China’s impact on global CPI. After all, mainland inflation
at home has jumped sharply over the past 12 months, which naturally brings up the question of whether this
trend is being exported abroad.
And looking at Chart 1 below, investors may have something to be concerned about. According to US Bureau
of Labor Statistics data, import prices from China were falling by around 1.5% y/y in dollar terms from 2004
right through the middle of 2007 … but over the past six months they have jumped both suddenly and sharply,
exceeding positive inflation of 2.5% y/y by the end of the year.........