最近乌克兰的政治动荡的根源在于其经济发展受制于人。如同所示，2013年，乌克兰有-$6bn经常项目逆差，占GDP高达8%。同时由于能源价格高企，其天然气进口额高达$6bn。所以乌克兰当局十分依赖外部资金的支援。如今乌克兰当局过分投靠俄罗斯，使得反对派及部分民众不满，引发示威游行。但同时，欧洲部分银行在乌克兰和俄罗斯有投资，并且俄罗斯为整个欧洲提供了相当一部分的能源。所以在制裁俄罗斯这个议题上，欧洲各国必将三思而行。



原文在这里（http://alphanow.thomsonreuters.c ... -kiev/#.UxuLzYXjJ7w），部分精彩观点摘录如下：

• It was the chronic current account deficit that led the authorities in Ukraine to seek foreign assistance (essentially a multi-billion loan from Russia), which involved terms that part of the population found sufficiently unappealing to take to the streets.  The situation in Ukraine is exacerbated by linguistic and religious divisions between the eastern and western parts of the country – which threaten to explode into full blown civil war.
  

• In terms of overseas bank exposures, the biggest players in the Ukrainian market are Austria and France. Their banks account for 31% and 15% of the total exposure of overseas banks to that economy. However, because Ukraine is small, loans to Ukraine account for only 2% of Austria’s total foreign banking exposures.
  

• Germany and France are big players in the Russian market as well, accounting for 11% and 23% of the total exposures of overseas banks – and yet Russia makes up just 1% and 2% of these countries’ total foreign banking exposures.
  

• Should the situation deteriorate, Russia could halt energy exports through the Ukrainian pipeline leaving just Nord Stream to pick up the slack – but even that could only cope with half the increase in volume that would necessitate.
  

• This could lead to significant increases in European energy prices, with potential repercussions for inflation that would further complicate Mario Draghi’s task. To make matters worse some 40% of the European Union’s natural gas imports come from Russia – though this amounts to 30% of total consumption.
  

• Some of the biggest importers of Russian gas in the EU are Germany and Italy where Russian natural gas imports account for roughly 30% of consumption and Greece where most of the natural gas consumed comes from Russia