短评
地理的作用集中在经济和人口两个方面。地理通过影响运输成本和生产效率,而影响经济增长;地理通过气候、区位等影响人口增长。
两个事实
Nearly all countries in the geographictropic are poor, and almost all countries in the mid-and high latitudes arerich.
Coastal countries generally have higher incomes than do landlockedcountries.
对发展中国家的本质分析
In many labor-intensive industries, the developing country imports a large portionof the value of final output. The intermediate imports are assembled bydomestic workers and then re-exported to world markets. Thus, the developingcountry is essentially selling labor services used in assembly operationsrather than selling the entire product. For such assembly industries, evensmall increases in transport costs can render the sector noncompetitive. Forthis reason, only developing countries with good transport access to worldmarkets have been able to establish assembly-type industries (Radelet and Sachs1998).
思考:中国产业转移,路在何方?大范围向中西部转移真的不现实。我的观点:东部发达省份的发展中区域、三大核心地带的外围地区,是产业转移的主要区域。
人口多是好还是坏?
对沿海(发达)与内陆(欠发达)作用不同。因为生产函数不同,一个是CD生产函数,一个是CES生产函数。
地理影响政策
Geography can have anotherpotent effect through its influence on the choice of economic policies.Countries that are close to markets, for example, may choose more open tradepolicies than countries that are far from markets.
聚集经济的作用——折射出非线性模型的重要性
We test for agglomeration effects. Weseparate GDP per square kilometer on the coast and GDP per square kilometer inthe hinterland because population density on the coast is likely to beassociated with an increased division of labor and increasing returns, whereas populationdensity in the hinterland is likely to be associated with diminishing returns.
人口增长与分布——对当前中国空间结构调整有启发
• Proximity to inland orocean-navigable rivers is an important predictor of population density, more importantthan proximity to the coast.
• Good soil and water supply areimportant factors in population density.
• Population densities are highestin the moist temperate ecozone.
• Population density is greater athigh altitudes in the tropics but lower at high altitudes in the temperatezone.
• The prevalence of malaria ispositively correlated with population density.
• There is tremendous persistence inrelative population density over the centuries, but there is also someconvergence toward a more uniform density. (The coefficient on populationdensity in 1800 is positive and less than 1.)
对于中国而言,黑河-腾冲一线(胡焕庸线)是自宋以来稳定的分界线。