其中prob=1，危机发生；prob=0，危机没有发生

我选择了10个国家的12个指标24个月的面板数据 作为样本

问题：1、这个模型应该用logit还是probit模型呢？

             2、如果选择logit，是不是不一定能够适用所有的面板数据呢？也就是说，面板数据+logit是否需要有理论背景支持？

             3、有些样本国家某项指标数据没有统计，这样的数据缺失（unbalance panel data）应该怎么处理？

            4、我建了面板数据，使用命令

                  xtlogit  y  m2reserves m2reservesgrowth reservegrowth exportgrowth cagrowth rerdeviation m2bm inflation dcgdp gdpgrowth rlrd importgrowth cagdp

                  出现结果：

``````

``````

``````        
Iteration 11275:log likelihood =  1.698e-15  (not concave)
Iteration 11276:log likelihood =  1.698e-15  (not concave)
Iteration 11277:log likelihood =  1.698e-15  (not concave)
`````

`````

Iteration 15995:log likelihood =  1.698e-15  (not concave)
Iteration 15996:log likelihood =  1.698e-15  (not concave)
Iteration 15997:log likelihood =  1.698e-15  (not concave)
Iteration 15998:log likelihood =  1.698e-15  (not concave)
Iteration 15999:log likelihood =  1.698e-15  (not concave)
Iteration 16000:log likelihood =  1.698e-15  (not concave)
convergence not achieved

Random-effects logistic regression              Number of obs      =       148
Group variable: country                         Number of groups   =         7

Random effects u_i ~ Gaussian                   Obs per group: min =         4
                                                               avg =      21.1
                                                               max =        24

                                                Wald chi2(0)       =         .
Log likelihood  =  1.698e-15                    Prob > chi2        =         .

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
  m2reserves |  -875.0489          .        .       .            .           .
m2reserves~h |  -29.85388          .        .       .            .           .
reservegro~h |  -46.42867          .        .       .            .           .
exportgrowth |    -59.699          .        .       .            .           .
    cagrowth |  -117.1609          .        .       .            .           .
rerdeviation |  -2027.162          .        .       .            .           .
        m2bm |   198.8079          .        .       .            .           .
   inflation |  -132.7961          .        .       .            .           .
       dcgdp |   378.4943          .        .       .            .           .
   gdpgrowth |   189.3665          .        .       .            .           .
        rlrd |   251.0469          .        .       .            .           .
importgrowth |    31.8228          .        .       .            .           .
       cagdp |  -369.0608          .        .       .            .           .
       _cons |   1659.355          .        .       .            .           .
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
convergence not achieved

请高手帮我看看怎么回事啊？

小女子感激不尽