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2014-08-03

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LONDON While the 70th anniversary of D-Day last month received a lot of attention, another event, in July 1944 the Bretton Woods conference, named for the mountain resort in New Hampshire where it was held was perhaps even more significant in shaping the modern world. It not only led to the creation of what are now the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, but it also confirmed the central position of the United States dollar in the international monetary system.

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伦敦——上个月,诺曼底登陆70周年纪念日吸引了大量关注,而在19447月发生的另外一件大事——以新罕布什尔州山区度假胜地的名字命名的布雷顿森林会议(Bretton Woods conference)——可能在塑造现代社会的过程中发挥了更重大的作用。它不仅催生了我们今天所知的国际货币基金(IMF)和世界银行(World Bank),而且还确立了美元在当今国际货币体系中的中心地位。

Why does this matter for us now? Just as America displaced Britain as the worlds pre-eminent economic power in the interwar period, so, too, the large debts and fiscal pressures confronting the West, and the rise of China and other economic powers, challenge us to think about the future of finance.

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为什么对我们如今的状况来说,这很重要呢?正如在两次世界大战期间,美国取代英国,成为世界上首屈一指的经济大国一样,如今西方面临的巨额债务和财政压力,和中国等经济大国的崛起,也促使我们思考金融的未来。

For most of the 19th century the British pound had been the worlds reserve currency,the currency in which trade and finance were denominated. As sound as a poundbecame a widely used expression. The pound was pegged to gold at a fixed rate of just under £4 per ounce.

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19世纪的大部分时间里,英镑一直是全球的“储备货币”,主导着贸易和金融体系。“像英镑那样稳固”成为了一个广为使用的比喻。英镑以略低于每盎司4英镑的固定兑换率与黄金挂钩。

At the outbreak of World War I, Britain abandoned the gold standard. You could no longer exchange pounds for gold. The gold standard was reintroduced in 1925, but this, as John Maynard Keynes observed, proved to be an economic mistake.

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第一次世界大战爆发后,英国放弃了金本位制。你无法再把英镑兑换成黄金。金本位制于1925年再度启用,但是正如约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)所说,事实证明这是一个错误之举。

British prices and, more crucially, wages, would have to be forced down by 10 percent to maintain the competitiveness of British exports. As American agricultural and industrial exports soared in the 1920s and 1930s, the dollar effectively replaced the pound. It was American bankers who helped out the financially strapped Weimar Republic in the 1920s. The British, as exporters of capital, were a diminished force.

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为了维持英国的出口竞争力,该国的物价不得不强制降低10%,更重要的是,工资也是如此。由于美国农业和工业出口量在上世纪2030年代猛增,美元实际上已经取代了英镑。在上世纪20年代,为财政拮据的魏玛共和国提供帮助的也是美国银行家。而英国作为一个资本出口国来说,已经颓势毕露。

By the time of Bretton Woods, the United States held roughly 60 percent of the worlds gold supply. Think of the gold in Fort Knox,Americas chief negotiator at Bretton Woods, Harry Dexter White, said. That is why we are in a powerful position.He added, We have the wherewithal to buy any currency we want.

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在布雷顿森林会议召开的时候,美国持有全球黄金供应量的大约60%。“想想诺克斯堡的黄金,”布雷顿森林会议上的美国首席谈判代表哈里·德克斯特·怀特(Harry Dexter White)说。“这就是为什么我们处在有利地位的原因。”他还说,“我们有足够的资金来购买想要的任何货币。”

Bretton Woods fixed the dollar price of gold at $35 per ounce, and all the other major currencies the pound, the franc, the mark, the yen were subsequently pegged to the dollar, even though they could not be exchanged directly for gold. This system lasted until 1971. By then, America was under the financial strain of the Vietnam War and Lyndon B. Johnsons Great Society. With mounting deficits and an adverse balance of trade, America struggled to maintain gold convertibility at the old rate of $35 an ounce. So President Richard M. Nixon abandoned the fixed dollar price of gold established at Bretton Woods (over the objections of the Federal Reserve chairman, Arthur F. Burns).

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布雷顿森林会议规定了35美元兑换1盎司黄金的官价,还规定所有其他主要货币——英镑、法郎、马克、日元——即便不能直接兑换黄金,之后也要与美元挂钩。这个体系一直延续到1971年。那时候,越南战争和林登·B·约翰逊(Lyndon B. Johnson)的“大社会”(Great Society)计划导致美国资金吃紧。随着赤字和贸易逆差的不断增长,美国要维持每盎司黄金35美元的官价已经步履维艰。因此,理查德·M·尼克松(Richard M. Nixon)总统不顾美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯(Arthur F. Burns)的反对,放弃了在布雷顿森林会议规定的美元兑黄金固定官价。

International critics said that the United States, by ending the dollar link to gold, was turning its back on its responsibilities as the guarantor of the international monetary system. Over the decades, the situation has gotten worse. The United States is $17.6 trillion in debt owed to the public, and large trade deficits are the norm. Yet there is no scope for revisiting the international monetary system, despite great dissatisfaction by countries like China and the Persian Gulf states, which hold large foreign currency reserves. Americans themselves question the security of the dollar when their country faces such large trade and budget deficits.

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国际批评家说,取消美元和黄金的挂钩,是美国对其身为国际货币体系担保人的职责的背弃。几十年来,情况已变得更加糟糕。美国欠公众的债务达到17.6万亿美元,巨额贸易赤字已经成为常态。然而,尽管中国和波斯湾国家等持有大量外汇储备的国家对国际货币体系极为不满,重新审视这个体系的机会却从未出现。在美国面临如此巨大的贸易逆差和预算赤字之际,就连美国人自己也质疑美元的安全性。

Chinas nearly $4 trillion in reserves accumulated through its mercantilist trade policies give it plenty of ammunition to claim leadership in the creation of a new monetary order. The Chinese, however, are most unlikely to bid for monetary hegemony in the near future. For the past 25 years they have pursued a policy of aggressive export growth to drive their economy. China successively devalued its currency, from 1.50 renminbi to the dollar in 1980, to 8.72 in 1994. (Today the renminbi trades at 6.20 to the dollar, which the United States still considers artificially low.)

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中国拥有近4万亿美元的储备——这是其重商主义贸易政策带来的累积——因此中国拥有充足的筹码,可以要求在树立货币新秩序的过程中拥有领导地位。但是,中国人在不久的将来争取货币霸权的可能性微乎其微。过去的25年中,中国为了推动经济发展,一直在奉行积极的出口增长政策。它接二连三地让人民币贬值,1美元在1980年时可以兑换1.50元人民币,到1994年时可以兑换8.72元。(今天的汇率是1美元兑换6.20元人民币,美国认为这个汇率仍然遭到人为压低。)

Could China someday peg its currency to gold, as Britain did in 1821? China has the reserves to do this, and it could have the political will, if the dollar proved to be unreliable as a store of value in the future.

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中国会不会有朝一日也让人民币和黄金挂钩,就像英国1821年时做的那样呢?从中国的储备来看,它有能力做到这一点,而且如果将来有事实证明,美元是一种价值不可靠的储备的话,中国在政治上可能也有这么做的意愿。

Of course, Britains earlier adoption of the gold standard, in 1821, worsened a sharp deflationary period, during which, according to one calculation, consumer prices fell nearly 50 percent, between 1818 and 1822.

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当然,英国在1821年对金本位制的采用,导致了一个急剧通缩期的恶化;根据一些人的计算,在这个通缩期内的18181822年之间,消费品价格降低了近50%

Nevertheless, to its supporters the gold standard ensured British fiscal and monetary dominance during the rest of the 19th century. As the British historian A.J.P. Taylor observed, 19th-century Britons believed that a country could not flourish without a balanced budget and a gold currency.Since Keynes, the West has tried to deny this proposition, with our reliance on deficit spending and fiatmoney, backed mainly by the expectation that a government will not default on its debts.

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然而,金本位制的支持者认为,在19世纪的其余时间里,是金本位制确保了英国在财政和货币领域的主导地位。正如英国历史学家A·J·P·泰勒(A.J.P. Taylor)所说,19世纪的英国人认为,“如果没有平衡的预算和金币,一个国家就无法兴旺发达。”自凯恩斯以来,西方一直试图否定这个观念,并且纷纷倚重于赤字开支和法定货币,而支持它们的,主要是“ZF债务不会违约”的预期。

China is not as indebted as the West, but it is looking to rebalanceits economy by raising demand by consumers, who want to enjoy the standard of living enjoyed across the Western world. Since 2010, the renminbi has appreciated 14 percent without drastically hurting Chinese exports.

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中国不像西方那样负债累累,但它正在通过促进消费者需求的方式,设法“重新平衡”本国经济;而中国消费者也希望享受西方世界享有的那种生活质量。2010年以来,人民币已升值14%,而且没有明显伤及中国的出口。

Having expanded its manufacturing base and captured international markets, China may well find a world hooked on its products. It could eventually in, say, 20 years peg the renminbi to gold, considering it preferable to the dollar as a store of value, because of its permanence and longevity. With a balanced budget and a gold-backed currency, Chinas economy could be even more formidable than it is today. Such a move would truly mark its return as the Middle Kingdom.Hard as it may be to contemplate today, this scenario would, in many ways, be a more secure basis for an international monetary regime system than the system of floating exchange rates that Nixon inadvertently created in 1971, one that forever overturned the Bretton Woods order.

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在扩张制造基地并占领国际市场后,中国可能发现整个世界已经离不开它的产品。最终——比方说,20年后——它可能会将人民币和黄金挂钩,认为这种恒定而永久的东西是比美元更优越的价值储藏手段。有了收支平衡的预算和金本位的货币,中国经济可能会比现在还要令人生畏。这样的举措将标志着“中土之国”的真正回归。在今天恐怕很难想象,但从很多方面看,这种设想作为一个国际货币管理体制,要比尼克松不经意间在1971年建立的浮动汇率制更稳定,当年正是这个制度彻底推翻了布雷顿森林体系。






答题送币时间

1、选择:在布雷顿森林会议召开的时候,美国持有全球黄金供应量的大约多少?(24小时内作答有效)
A、60%

B、50%
C、70%

2、讨论:中国会不会有朝一日也让人民币和黄金挂钩?如果真有那么一天,你认为这是进步呢还是倒退呢?欢迎分享你的观点~






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2014-8-3 10:14:03
The gold specie standard arose from the widespread acceptance of gold as currency
But gold in existence cannot exchange the whole Assets and material
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2014-8-3 10:15:59
A gold standard provides practical constraints against the measures that central banks might otherwise use to respond to economic crises.
Creation of new money reduces interest rates and thereby increases demand for new lower cost debt, raising the demand for money.
So I believe gold standard system would not establish in our Country!
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2014-8-3 10:17:09
And gold standard system perhaps will restrict our economy in the future.
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2014-8-3 10:20:35
A.............
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2014-8-3 10:24:57
谢谢分享~~~
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