不知道能不能请教一个问题：就是准备金评估的第十五章中 讲到monitor projections of the development of unpaid over subsequent calendar periods时 用的估计方法是 expectced claims reported during period N = (estimated ultimated claims - reported claims at N-1)/(1-expeceted reported % at N-1)*(expected reported %at N - expeced reported %atN-1) ,我一直没有完全理解为什么要用这种估计方法，其合理性在哪里？随便想想，也有几种其它能估计expected claims reported during period N 的方法。 而且作者在其它地方也用到类似这里的思想，所以想搞清楚其理论基础。哪位同学能指点一下啊，谢谢！