近来看到媒体在讨论这个问题时，都提到了这篇论文，看来国人也学会了用学术观点来论证自己的论点，《南方周末》文章》新城傍高铁：“死城”隐忧》和傅蔚冈的《注定荒芜的高铁新城》都引述了这篇文章第22页的一段：
NTHS connections on the waybetween targeted destinations have on average reduced GDP growth by about 18 percent over a nine year period between 1997-2006 compared to non-connected peripheral counties. Local government revenue growth is reduced by approximately 23 percent. These adverse growth effects appear to be mainly driven by a decline in industrial output growth of approximately 26 percent over the nine year period.
Proposition 1 Falling trade costs between a su¢ ciently uneven core-periphery pair of regions lead to a reduction of industrial production in the integrating periphery relative to a
non-integrating peripheral control region.
Proposition 2 The negative e§ect of integration holds, but to a lesser extent, for total regional production, and is reversed in sign for agricultural production.
Proposition 3 The negative e§ects of integration on industrial and total production are
more pronounced among peripheral regions with initially lower trade costs to the larger core
region.
Proposition 4 The negative e§ects of integration on industrial and total production are
more pronounced among peripheral regions with an initially stronger market size di§erential
to the core region.
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更高深的内容可以阅读《转型中的地方ZF:官员激励与治理》
周教授确实在这方面很有研究
