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2014-10-11
本人拜读曼昆的微观经济学原理,学到了沉没成本这一概念,据此概念,假设买着对某场演唱会的评价是40美元,他花了30美元买了一张票,结果半路上被狗叼走了,问是不是该再买一张,根据教材说法,这30元irrevocable,应该回头再买一张。


本人斗胆认为,这个说法本身有问题,2次购票总成本是60美元,这个是从口袋里真金白银出去的,超过了评价。
推广沉没成本到极致,假设此人第二次购的票又被另一只狗叼走了,那么他说这是沉没成本,应该购买第三次。
我认为沉没成本是错误的。
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2014-10-11 16:01:29
In economics and business decision-making, a sunk cost is a retrospective (past) cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered. Sunk costs are sometimes contrasted with prospective costs, which are future costs that may be incurred or changed if an action is taken.

In traditional microeconomic theory, only prospective (future) costs are relevant to an investment decision. Traditional economics proposes that economic actors should not let sunk costs influence their decisions. Doing so would not be rationally assessing a decision exclusively on its own merits. Alternatively, a decision-maker might make rational decisions according to their own incentives, outside of efficiency or profitability. This is considered to be an incentive problem and is distinct from a sunk cost problem.

Evidence from behavioral economics suggests this theory fails to predict real-world behavior. Sunk costs do, in fact, influence actors' decisions because humans are prone to loss aversion and framing effects. In light of such cognitive quirks, it is unsurprising that people frequently fail to behave in ways that economists deem "rational".

Sunk costs should not affect the rational decision-maker's best choice. However, until a decision-maker irreversibly commits resources, the prospective cost is an avoidable future cost and is properly included in any decision-making processes.

For example, if one is considering preordering movie tickets, but has not actually purchased them yet, the cost remains avoidable. If the price of the tickets rises to an amount that requires him to pay more than the value he places on them, he should figure the change in prospective cost into the decision-making and re-evaluate his decision.

I hope this helps.
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2014-10-11 16:17:16
怎么觉得要是想看,还就得买哦,,,,
算了,还是先顶你起来吧再说吧
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2014-10-11 16:42:38
进来看看                                                                        
                                       
                                                     
                                                     
                                             
                                                                 
                                                                                 
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2014-10-11 20:28:59
这并不矛盾,因为经济学是建立在假设的基础之上的。
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