1) the shocking move
from the ECB last Thursday
2) Oil is approaching the crunch point. At $145pb the combined interest, food and energy bill is back where it was prior to the 1990 hard landing.
3) Bernanke is not willing to tolerate a weaker dollar (which is reminiscent of Oct 87, when Greenspan stated that he was unwilling to tolerate a weaker dollar while Bundesbank President Tietmeyer wanted a strong DM to control inflation).
4) Emerging market growth risk rising
as commodities account for about 40% of CPI. We are worried about the prospects for those countries that are big commodity importers ith current account and budget deficits (Turkey and India). - This is in line with what Sakthi and Nilesh are saying on India (see sakthi's report and Daily on india from early last week and Nilesh's Daily from yesterday - very good top-down reasons).
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-6-11 8:28:06编辑过]
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