Monthly Review
􀁺 Business Cycle
-- First-quarter GDP (the first of three estimates) grew at a 0.6% annual rate,
unchanged from the previous quarter, reflecting an increase in exports and inventory
building. The core price index rose at a 2.2% annual rate, down
from a 2.5% pace in the prior quarter. Consumer spending rose at a
1.0% annual rate, the smallest gain since the second quarter of 2001.
Real residential fixed investment fell at a 27% annual rate, the biggest
drop since 1981. Business fixed investment fell at a 2.5% annual
rate, the biggest drop since the first quarter of 2004, following a
6.0% gain in the prior quarter. Businesses added to inventories at a
$1.8 billion annual rate following an annualized decline of $18.3 billion
in the fourth quarter. Exports grew 5.5% after rising 6.5% in the
fourth quarter. (p10-11)
-- Apparel import volumes fell 5.1% with Chinese imports falling
9.6% year-to-March. Vietnam apparel imports rose 30.8% year-to-March following
a 45.0% gain year-to-February. Meanwhile, the trade deficit narrowed 5.7% to
$58.2 billion in March, the lowest level this year. Imports fell 2.9% to $206.7 billion,
the biggest drop since December 2001, despite record oil prices, while exports fell
1.7% to $148.5 billion, the biggest drop in nearly three years. (p12)
-- Industrial production rose 0.3% in March, the biggest gain since November.
Capacity utilization rose 0.2% to 80.5% as cooler temperatures boosted utility output.
Utility output rose 1.9% while consumer goods output was flat.
Manufacturing output rose 0.1%, held down by a 5.4% drop in auto
output due to a strike. Excluding autos, industrial production rose
0.6%. (p13)
-- Manufacturers' new orders rose 1.4% in March following two
consecutive monthly declines, due to strong demand for computers
and machinery. Orders excluding transportation rose 2.2%, the biggest
gain in a year. Orders excluding defense rose 1.4% following a
1.1% drop in February. Shipments rose 1.1% following a 1.9% drop
in February. (p14)
-- The non-manufacturing index rose to 52 in April, the first expansion
in three months. Twelve industries reported growth led by
entertainment and real estate. Meanwhile, the manufacturing index was unchanged
at 48.6, the third consecutive month of contraction. Seven of eighteen
industries were growing, led by electronics, printing, paper and transportation equipment.
(p15)
􀁺 Consumer
-- The consumer confidence index fell to 62.3 in April, the lowest level in five
years. The present situation index fell to 80.7 from 90.6 in March while the expectations
index rose to 50.1 from 49.4. The proportion of people who said jobs are
plentiful fell to 16.6, the lowest level since September 2004. The proportion of
people who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months fell to 15.1, the
lowest level since records began in 1967. (p16)

Contents
Introduction
Monthly Review .............................................................. 4-6
Economy at a Glance ......................................................... 7
Economic Calendar ............................................................ 8
Business Cycle
Gross Domestic Product .............................................. 10-11
Imports of Apparel & Textiles...........................................12
Industrial Production..........................................................13
Shipments & Orders..........................................................14
Miscellaneous Indicators ...................................................15
Consumer
Confidence (Conference Board) .......................................16
Credit .................................................................................17
Expenditure ................................................................. 18-21
Income......................................................................... 22-23
Employment
Employment & Earnings ...................................................24
Productivity & Costs .........................................................25
Housing
Home Sales and Starts ......................................................26
Inventories
Manufacturer Inventories ..................................................27
Retailer Inventories ...........................................................28
Wholesale Inventories .......................................................29
Prices
Consumer Price Index................................................. 30-31
Producer Price Index .................................................. 32-33
Sales
Retail Sales .................................................................. 34-37
Redbook Same-store Sales ...............................................38
Database
Economic Time Series ................................................. 39-61