DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY/GOVERNMENT SERVICES
MONTHLY REVIEW (APRIL 2008)
Key Points
• April 2008 Update. In this month’s review, we discuss the contract protest environment.
Contract protests are not new to the industry and have plagued participants for years.
However, over the last 24 months the drag stemming from contract protests has, in our
opinion, adversely impacted reported results for our publicly traded Government
Services/Defense Technology companies as trends in contracting practices have moved away
from numerous low-dollar awards to fewer very large-dollar bundled commitments by
government. As such, in this month’s review we discuss our take on the current procurement
environment and ask the question—who’s to blame…?
• Performance Review. Since December 31, 2007, the S&P 500 Index, S&P IT, S&P
Aerospace & Defense, and Nasdaq Composite indices have decreased 5.6%, 9.5%, 3.0%, and
9.0%, respectively. By comparison, our universe of Defense Technology firms has decreased
6.2% over the same period and is down 22.7% from its average rolling 52-week high. Our
universe of Government Services firms has decreased 1.3% over the same period and is down
16.8% from its average rolling 52-week high.
• Estimate Revisions. Since October 17, 2007, the companies we track showed CY’08 EPS
estimates decreasing by an average of 6.2%, according to First Call. A breakdown of the
group shows 25 companies with increased EPS expectations and 30 with decreased EPS
expectations during the period. The Government Services segment fared best with an
average increase of 4.4% versus a 10.4% decrease in expectations for Defense Technology
and a decrease of 17.3% for Homeland Security.
• Short Interest Report. From late March 2008 to late April 2008, short positions within
our entire universe of monitored companies decreased 6.9% (vs. +29.4% last month).
Within Government Services, two of the eight companies we cover showed an increase in
short interest over the period, and within our Defense Technology coverage, two of the seven
companies we cover showed an increase in short interest over the period. Finally, as a group,
14 of the 59 companies we monitor showed an increase in short positions as reported in
April 2008.
• Prime Contract Recompetes through March 31, 2009. We provide data on
anticipated federal government prime contract recompetes through March 31, 2009. Data is
sorted by anticipated award date and lists the department requesting services, program
name, current status of the recompete, and estimated projected value of the new contract.
• Comparable Company Analysis, Additional Schedules and Charts. On pages 14–
30, we provide a comparable company analysis segmenting Defense Technology,
Government Services, Diversified Aerospace & Defense, and Homeland Security–focused
firms. Data points contained herein include BB&TCM estimates for covered companies and
First Call consensus estimates for non-covered firms. We also provide: Stock Performance
Summary; Insider Ownership & Major Shareholders; Calendar Q2’08 Contract Award
Review; Top 20 Department of Defense and Federal Civilian Opportunities; Industry
“Revolving Door”; Upcoming Conferences; Earnings Release Table; and Recent BB&TCM
Research Reports.
CONTENTS
April 2008 Update .........................................................................................................................3
Performance Review ......................................................................................................................9
Stock Performance Summary .......................................................................................................11
Valuation Review Based on BB&T Calendar-Year Projections .................................................. 14
Government Services Comparable Valuation Based on BB&T Capital Markets Estimates ...... 15
Defense Technology Comparable Valuation Based on BB&T Capital Markets Estimates ........ 16
Government Services Comparable Valuation Based on First Call Consensus Estimates ......... 17
Defense Technology Comparable Valuation Based on First Call Consensus Estimates ........... 18
Comparable Company Analysis .................................................................................................. 20
2008 First Call EPS Estimate Revision Report........................................................................... 31
Short Interest Report ...................................................................................................................32
Insider Transactions And Major Shareholders ...........................................................................33
Contract Award Review................................................................................................................35
Government Services................................................................................................................35
Defense Technology..................................................................................................................38
Prime Contract Recompetes ........................................................................................................39
Top 20 Department of Defense & Federal civilian Opportunities ............................................ 48
Department of Defense ........................................................................................................... 48
Federal Civilian........................................................................................................................50
Industry “Revolving Door”—Who’s In, Who’s Out? ...................................................................52
Upcoming Hearings & Industry Conferences .............................................................................53
Earnings Release Table ................................................................................................................54
Recent BB&T Capital Markets Research Reports ................................................................55