1。 China: Real Estate Developers
  
Weakening sales trend is likely to continue

More widely spread slow down

Weak property sales for last week (ended June 22) came as no surprise to

us: total transaction volume of major cities was still 53% lower than the

average level for June 2007. We also see a further weakening sales trend

(both volume and price) in major cities of the Yangtze River Delta region,

led by Shanghai, which has been a relatively resilient region at the early

stage of this round of correction.

2。
      

Buy

Hidili Industry International Development

Return Potential: 57%

Growth poised to accelerate, powered by “2R”; initiate with Buy

Buy

Hidili Industry International Development

Return Potential: 57%

Growth poised to accelerate, powered by “2R”; initiate with Buy

Buy

Hidili Industry International Development

Return Potential: 57%

Growth poised to accelerate, powered by “2R”; initiate with Buy

Buy

Hidili Industry International Development

Return Potential: 57%

Growth poised to accelerate, powered by “2R”; initiate with Buy

Buy

Hidili Industry International Development

Return Potential: 57%

Growth poised to accelerate, powered by “2R”; initiate with Buy

Buy

Hidili Industry International Development

Return Potential: 57%

Growth poised to accelerate, powered by “2R”; initiate with Buy

Source of opportunity

We initiate coverage of Hidili (1393.HK, Buy) with a 12-month TP of HK$18,

implying 44% potential upside (as of June 20). In our view, Hidili’s risk/reward

profile is favorable as earnings are poised to accelerate while valuation is still

at trough levels. (1) Coking coal price is up 130% yoy and 95% ytd (up 18% so

far in June alone), underpinned by strong profitability at steel mills and three

supply-side anchors – limited greenfield expansion, crackdown on small mines,

and railway bottlenecks. (2) Hidili’s “2R” strategy of securing coal resources

far in June alone), underpinned by strong profitability at steel mills and three

supply-side anchors – limited greenfield expansion, crackdown on small mines,

and railway bottlenecks. (2) Hidili’s “2R” strategy of securing coal resources

far in June alone), underpinned by strong profitability at steel mills and three

supply-side anchors – limited greenfield expansion, crackdown on small mines,

and railway bottlenecks. (2) Hidili’s “2R” strategy of securing coal resources

far in June alone), underpinned by strong profitability at steel mills and three

supply-side anchors – limited greenfield expansion, crackdown on small mines,

and railway bottlenecks. (2) Hidili’s “2R” strategy of securing coal resources

far in June alone), underpinned by strong profitability at steel mills and three

supply-side anchors – limited greenfield expansion, crackdown on small mines,

and railway bottlenecks. (2) Hidili’s “2R” strategy of securing coal resources

(1) Coking coal price is up 130% yoy and 95% ytd (up 18% so
far in June alone), underpinned by strong profitability at steel mills and three

supply-side anchors – limited greenfield expansion, crackdown on small mines,

and railway bottlenecks. (2) Hidili’s “2R” strategy of securing coal resources

(2) Hidili’s “2R” strategy of securing coal resources
  
and railway access supports substantial growth beyond the current ‘07-‘10E

volume CAGR of 46%, highest in our China coal coverage.

volume CAGR of 46%, highest in our China coal coverage.

volume CAGR of 46%, highest in our China coal coverage.

volume CAGR of 46%, highest in our China coal coverage.

volume CAGR of 46%, highest in our China coal coverage.

railway access supports substantial growth beyond the current ‘07-‘10E
volume CAGR of 46%, highest in our China coal coverage.

3。 6-25 Asia-Pacific Morning Summary

Focus Items

Hidili Industry International Development (1393.HK) Buy: Growth poised to

accelerate, powered by "2R"; initiate with Buy 1

1
   
China: Portfolio Strategy: A-share strategy: Back to reality 2

2
   
Catcher Technology (2474.TW): Weakness priced in; remove from Conv Sell list,

upgrade to Neutral 3

3
   
India: Financial Services: Policy tightening: headwinds are here to stay; be

selective 4

4
   
4.China: Portfolio Strategy

A-share strategy: Back to reality

        

[此贴子已经被angelboy于2008-8-14 13:33:15编辑过]