<p>Network airlines<br/>Long-term winners, but is there<br/>further value destruction ahead?<br/><a href="http://www.davy.ie/">www.davy.ie</a><br/>Bloomberg: DAVY<GO><br/>Research: +353 1 6148997<br/>Institutional Equity Sales: +353 1 6792816 Davy Research<br/>Stephen Furlong<br/><a href="mailto:stephen.furlong@davy.ie">stephen.furlong@davy.ie</a> +353 1 6148924<br/>Ivan Skelly<br/><a href="mailto:ivan.skelly@davy.ie">ivan.skelly@davy.ie</a> +353 1 6148876<br/>Global capacity will need to be cut<br/>• There is significant overhang from prior years, and<br/>capacity is far above 2002 levels in all global markets.<br/>• There will be huge capex spend over the coming<br/>years, including that from Air France and Lufthansa.<br/>In addition, Middle Eastern airlines' order books look<br/>extremely large even if there were some deferrals.<br/>• European airlines will need to cut capacity as the US<br/>airlines have done.<br/>Demand is clearly not keeping pace with supply<br/>• Cargo, a leading indicator, is falling double digits.<br/>The cargo businesses of both Lufthansa and Air<br/>France represent a low-teens percentage of their<br/>overall respective businesses.<br/>• The International Air Transport Association (IATA)<br/>has described the situation as the "worst revenue<br/>environment in 50 years"; low cost carriers will<br/>continue to gain market share in Europe.<br/>• Premium volume is likely to remain under pressure.<br/>The IATA indicates that premium revenues are now<br/>falling faster than passenger numbers.<br/>• A declining oil price means that the network<br/>surcharges are being removed formulaically.<br/>Difficult to shrink to profitability in a downturn without<br/>fundamental restructuring<br/>• Pension issues continue at BA and KLM, and there<br/>are labour concerns at Air France and Lufthansa.<br/>• Although these airlines are winners in the<br/>consolidation game, we remain cautious. Based on<br/>current valuations, we rank this caution in the<br/>following order – BA, Lufthansa, Air France KLM.</p><p></p><p> <br/></p><p></p>

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-31 13:49:44编辑过]