Buy ahead of a year end demand floor
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DJ Stoxx Airlines DJ Sto xx TMI (Rebased)
So urce: Factset
Sector Top Picks TP – FV
Ryanair Buy EUR 4.30
easyJet Buy GBPp 365
Sector coordinator(s)
Neil Glynn, CFA
NCB Stockbrokers Ireland
Sector team
Harald Liberge-Dondoux
CM - CIC Securities France
Jochen Rothenbacher, CEFA
Equinet Germany
Johannes Møller, CFA
Danske Markets Equities Denmark
Panu Laitinmäki
Danske Markets Equities Finland
Gearing up towards a demand floor by year end: We expect the revenue
trough to come nearer year end, despite tentative signs of stabilisation. We
are positive on airlines, with BUY recommendations on 80% of the sector by
market cap, and see comfort on the top line front triggering significant gains
between now and year end. Q209 looks to have been slightly worse than
Q1, however we expect the rate of yoy revenue decline to ease in Q3
before a further improvement in Q4. Our view on demand is consistent with
prevailing economic consensus and is well supported by the results of our
own Global Premium Air Travel Survey.
BA needs to raise up to £500m of fresh equity but liquidity adequate
for most sector players: Air France KLM has boosted its liquidity outlook
through a convertible bond issue, putting pressure on BA's board to follow
suit to address increasing leverage and potentially make a lump sum
pension fund contribution. We have no liquidity concerns for the rest of our
universe excepting Finnair and SAS, however Lufthansa may ultimately
issue debt to protect its investment grade credit rating.
Positive on RYA, EZJ, AF, LHA, IBLA, AERL, Cautious on BAY, FIA,
SAS, Ryanair remains best positioned to outperform
We maintain our existing PTs for RYA (BUY/