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Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity

Author: DONALD R. DAVIS AND DAVID E. WEINSTEIN

Departmentof Economics, Columbia University, 420 West 118th Street, New York, NY 10027,and National Bureau of Economic Research (e-mail: DRD28@columbia.edu; and DEW35@columbia.edu).The authors want to especially thank Mary Berry, Wayne Farris, and Hiroshi Kitowho helped us enormously in obtaining and understanding the historicaldemographic data. While their help was instrumental, any remaining errors arethe responsibility of the authors. Kazuko Shirono gave us tremendous help withthe archival and data construction aspects of the paper. Joshua Greenfield alsohelped input the bombing data. Weinstein wants to also thank the Japan Societyfor the Promotion of Science for funding part of this research, and Seiichi Katayamafor providing him with research space and access to the Kobe University library.This research was supported by National Science Foundation Grant No.SBR-9810180.

AbSTRACT: Weconsider the distribution of economic activity within a country in light ofthree leading theories—increasing returns, random growth, and locationalfundamentals. To do so, we examine the distribution of regional population inJapan from the Stone Age to the modern era. We also consider the Allied bombingof Japanese cities in WWII as a shock to relative city sizes. Our resultssupport a hybrid theory in which locational fundamentals establish the spatialpattern of relative regional densities, but increasing returns help todetermine the degree of spatial differentiation. Long-run city size is robusteven to large temporary shocks. (JEL D5, J1, N9, R1)