Impact of regulatory change on China
Mobile is still unclear; based on Korea’s
experience, the market is too pessimistic
􀀗 Current price implies EBITDA margin
erosion of 1,630bps in 6 years; we think
regulatory risk is now priced in
􀀗 Reiterate OW on China Mobile. It will be
the only China telco with EPS growth in
2009 and also offers a 3% dividend yield
China’s telecom sector has been de-rated since last month’s
announcements about industry restructuring. China Mobile
is the most vulnerable to regulatory risk related to the
industry overhaul but we think much of the concern is
already priced in.
The current price of HKD102.6 is equivalent to an EBITDA
margin decline from 53.9% in 2008 to 37.6% by 2014
(equivalent to a 1,630bps decline over six years). Using the
Korean example as a benchmark, SKT’s EBITDA margin
declined 1,740bps during 2001-07 after assymetrical
regulations were introduced. China Mobile’s current price
has factored in regulatory uncertainty and there is a potential
upside if the impact is not as serious as many have thought.
China Mobile (maintain OW (V), TP: HKD130)
􀀗 Cut target price by 16% on regulatory concern, but it
will be the only China telco with EPS growth in 2009
China Unicom (maintain Neutral (V), TP: HKD14.6)
􀀗 Cut target price by 20% after taking into account the
dilution from the merger with China Netcom. Unicom
currently trades at 16.7x 08e pro-forma earnings, the
most expensive of all China telcos.
China Telecom (maintain Neutral (V), TP: HK4.9)
􀀗 Cut target price 6% to HKD4.9. We believe CDMA
acquisition is positive, but will take time to grow.
China Netcom (upgrade to Neutral (V), TP: HKD22)
􀀗 The stock has dropped by 20% over the past month and
is now around our target price. Upgrade to Neutral (V).

目录

How low can it go? 3
Asymmetrical regulations: the Korea experience 3
Will the same thing happen in China? 4
What does the current share price factor in? 4
What are the support levels? 6
Background 6
Our sector view: China Mobile still has the best
fundamentals 7
Company profiles 10
China Mobile 11
China Unicom 18
China Telecom Corporation 25
China Netcom 32
Disclosure appendix 38
Disclaimer 42

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-7-21 0:23:57编辑过]