【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国电信行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】： 35
【目录或简介】：
three to six months are crucial in shaping the competitive landscape in China
telecoms into FY10 and beyond. Should China Unicom achieve its “fair
share” of subscriber net additions (around 1.8-2.0 mn per month), as it had
in October, it will be absorbed into the market and a new, benign, three-way
market equilibrium will be formed. We view this outcome as probable.
■ On this expectation, we rate China Mobile OUTPERFORM, with a target
price of HK$105. The market is not pricing in an end to downward EPS
revisions, a higher divided payout, or an A-share listing, in our view. We rate
China Unicom OUTPERFORM, with a target price of HK$12.66, on rising
revenue market share. We upgrade China Telecom to NEUTRAL, with a
target price of HK$3.73, on lower subsidy levels (as a percentage of sales)
into FY10.
■ An upward “subsidy spiral” would, however, be damaging. Failure by
Unicom to continue to capture its fair share of subscribers under its current,
low-subsidy approach would likely trigger higher subsidies, and retaliation
from China Telecom, and then China Mobile.
■ China Unicom itself would be most affected, with a bear-case DCF of
HK$8.96/share. China Telecom is next most sensitive, with a bear-case DCF
of HK$2.95/share. China Mobile is least affected, with a bear-case DCF of
HK$94/share, but resulting FY10E EPS downgrades of around 7% would
likely elongate its run of underperformance since March 2009.