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2008-07-23

Business & IT Services
Full service
Brandt Sakakeeny
Research Analyst
(1) 212 250 8489
brandt.sakakeeny@db.com
Tim Fox
Research Analyst
(1) 800 893-2685
tim.fox@db.com
Christopher Mammone
Research Analyst
(1) 212 250 8244
christopher.mammone@db.com
Company updates
We include excerpts from our research on Western Union (WU) following the
company's analyst day event last week... We also provide research update on
Accenture (ACN) ahead of its FY3Q08 earnings on 6/26...
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from
local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies.
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of
DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access this IR at http://gm.db.com, or call 1-877-208-6300 to
request that a copy of the IR be sent to them.
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1
Compendium
Top picks
Resources Global Profession (RECN.OQ),USD21.75 Buy
Grubb & Ellis (GBE.N),USD5.20 Buy
FTI Consulting Inc (FCN.N),USD64.95 Buy
Global Markets Research Company
Economics
Initial unemployment claims for the week ended June 14 fell to 381K…
News and views
Grubb & Ellis (GBE) news: Strengthens corporate governance, Successfully
executes 53rd 1031 TIC exchange program through full cycle… MasterCard (MA):
Making progress on mobile payments… Softness in travel could hurt V/MA
volumes… Western Union (WU) expands share buyback program… ATM growth
soars in Central and Eastern Europe … Watson Wyatt (WW) acquires Marcu &
Asociados to bolster Latin American presence…
Sector valuation and risks
Our stock valuations are derived from a combination of comparable companies’
analysis, analysis of near-term earnings viability and computation of discounted
cash flows. For comparable companies’ and near-term earnings analysis, we
primarily employ a P/E-based valuation methodology and at times an EV/EBITDAbased
valuation approach for each of the stocks under our coverage, discussed in
this bulletin. We select what we deem to be an appropriate multiple on our
forward earnings (EPS) or EBITDA estimates based on our assessment of relative
growth rates, risks and competitive position.
Risks to investments in these stocks include a general economic slowdown
affecting employment trends and consumer spending, tight discretionary
corporate spending environment, interest rate fluctuations, and difficulty in
attracting and retaining top talent.

Table of Contents
Company updates.............................................................................. 3
WU - Shares rally on new Long-Term EPS goals, better margin disclosure..............................3
ACN - Looking for continued solid performance in FY3Q08......................................................4
Economics .......................................................................................... 5
Initial unemployment claims .....................................................................................................5
News and views ................................................................................ 6
GBE news ................................................................................................................................6
MA: Making progress on mobile payment................................................................................6
Softness in travel could hurt V/MA volumes.............................................................................6
ATM growth soars in Central and Eastern Europe ....................................................................7
WW acquires Marcu & Asociados to bolster Latin American presence ...................................7

Company updates
Below, we provide excerpts from our research on Western Union (WU) following the
company's analyst day event last week. We also provide research updates on Accenture
(ACN) ahead of its FY3Q08 earnings on 6/26.
WU - Shares rally on new Long-Term EPS goals, better margin
disclosure
Pleased with additional disclosure, but remain neutral after analyst day
Western Union (WU) shares rose as much as 10% in Friday trading (06/20) following its first
analyst day event in NYC. We attribute the positive reaction to WU’s decision to raise its
Long-Term EPS guidance (from +12-14% to +15-18%) and give better disclosure around
international revenues contribution and margin performance. Although we are pleased to get
the additional color, we maintained our HOLD rating as we await clearer signs that WU is
poised to reaccelerate top line growth and/or drive core margin improvement through pure
operating leverage (as opposed to cost-cutting).
New EPS growth goals have nothing to do with operating leverage
We note that WU’s new long-term EPS objectives remain predicated on (i) Restructuring --
WU expects $35mm in yearly savings beginning in 2009 ($5mm above prior estimates due to
another penny this year for the San Francisco data center closure), (ii) Share Buybacks – WU
has authorized an additional $1bn, and (iii) Tax Arbitrage – due to WU’s increasing
international mix shift. Despite better evidence of strong margin growth in EMEASA
(+700bps since 2002) and Asia-Pac (+1900bps), an increased emphasis on the lower margin
Vigo (C2C) and Pago Facil (C2B) platforms as future revenue growth engines keeps us
concerned about the outlook for sustainable margin expansion out of the core business.
More transparency on international, but not so much on competition
We appreciated getting our first glimpse at the revenue contribution and margin profile of the
C2C business by geographic region (i) the Americas (margins - 500bps since 2002), (ii)
Europe, Middle East, Africa, South Asia (EMEASA, cited above) and (iii) Asia Pac (cited
above). Conversely, we were most displeased with WU’s handling of several questions
around competition, as we had hoped to get the company’s take on more aggressive
participation in remittances by both U.S. and Latino banks, overtures by Visa and MasterCard
into the money transfer space, as well as Wal-Mart’s latest pursuits of the core under-banked
consumer that WU covets, all recent themes uncovered in our research.
We remain on the sidelines
Our $23 Price Target is 16x our 2009E EPS, in line with the comp group (ex V/MA). While we
view its Long-Term growth prospects and return characteristics as superior to most of these
peers, it is unlikely that WU will be afforded a more substantial premium multiple until the
domestic market shows clearer signs of a turnaround and margins begin to trend up due to
effective scaling of the business (as opposed to cost-cutting). Upside risks, in our opinion,
include easing regulatory environment, more rapid immigration growth, competitors getting
taken out and/or failing, and share buybacks. Downside risks include a more stringent
regulatory environment, immigration reform, and increased competition from non-traditional
sources of money transfer.
(Highlights from DB research on WU dated 06/20/08)

ACN - Looking for continued solid performance in FY3Q08
Scheduled to report after the close on Thursday, June 26th
Accenture will report FY3Q08 earnings after market close on 6/26. Following somewhat
mixed FY2Q results (solid bookings, weak margins), we are expecting another solid bookings
quarter despite macro headwinds in the U.S., and a rebound in margins. We remain
constructive on ACN shares due to its well-diversified customer and geographic exposure,
competitive advantages afforded by its global delivery network and strong cash flow
dynamics.
Our expectations
We expect ACN to report 3Q08 core revenues of $5.9bn and EPS of $0.69, in-line with Street
consensus. Note that we raised our FY3Q EPS estimate by $0.02 to better reflect seasonal
trends, but maintained our full-year F08 EPS estimate of $2.60. We expect EBIT margin to
rebound from 11.5% in FY2Q to 13.6%, reflecting absorption of wage increases, better
utilization in the Public segment and seasonal strength. We are forecasting quarterly
bookings of $6.9bn (+11% YoY)
End markets remain healthy overall
Our analysis of the financial health/outlook of ACN’s vertical markets suggests that its
customer base remains quite healthy – a positive sign for bookings. The exception of course
is the Financial segment, which, we point out, delivered solid results in FY2Q. Importantly,
capital markets exposure remains below 5% of revenues.
Maintained our Buy rating and $46 price target
We have relied primarily on (1) analysis of comparable companies, (2) analysis of the nearterm
earnings viability (CY09 EBIT margin of 13.0%, EPS of $2.94, P/E multiple of 18x, and
WACC of 11.4%), and (3) computation of discounted cash flows (WACC=11.4%, LTGR=4%).
Based on these methodologies, we believe that fair value is into the mid-to-high $40s. Risks,
in our opinion, include execution in the outsourcing and BPO space, pricing pressure in the
face of weakening US macros, and bookings weakness in the consulting segment.
(Highlights from DB research on ACN dated 06/22/08)

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2008-12-17 12:35:00

only 5 yuan left.假如楼长不care,能不能发到我邮箱,我很需要IT行业的研究资料。thank you for your kindly sharing

fionahuangjin@gmail.com

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2010-3-24 00:34:56
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