<p> <br/></p><p>• The industry is facing the most severe investment<br/>banking crisis in 30 years. Morgan Stanley and<br/>Oliver Wyman — in this joint report — estimate that<br/>six quarters of industry earnings will have been wiped<br/>out from marks and weaker revenues to April 2008.</p><p><br/>• We forecast underlying investment banking revenue<br/>pools to be down ~(20)% in 2008 before a further<br/>US$75 billion+ of marks in our base case. Our base<br/>case includes credit revenues down 60% and IBD<br/>down 40%. Our bear case has total revenues<br/>including marks down 45% on 2007.</p><p><br/>• We expect longer term RoEs to fall as banks seek to<br/>delever and regulators ask banks to hold more<br/>cushion. We estimate half of the increase in RoEs in<br/>the last four years has come from higher leverage,<br/>which we think will start to be reduced when<br/>‘log-jammed’ credit clears.</p><p><br/>• While cautious near term, we are optimistic further out<br/>as the cycle turns and we see numerous opportunities<br/>for rebound and growth, including the return of credit<br/>distribution, albeit in a very different form.</p>

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-8-16 14:39:59编辑过]