【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国资本市场前景展望
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：43
        【目录或简介】：
Our Sector Thesis. We are generally constructive on revenue, earnings
growth and return prospects within our coverage universe. We advocate
maintaining exposure to those franchises better leveraged to improving and
positive global GDP growth bolstered by healthy capital positions; we
support those management teams best able to consolidate and expand
upon 2009 market share gains. With that being said, we see more
opportunities for stock selection rather than an overall sector call.
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Our Macro and Market Assumptions. For 2010, our sector thesis and
stock recommendations broadly call for a continued return to more
normalized macro and market conditions. Consistent with Credit Suisse
expectations, we look for accelerating U.S. and global GDP growth, further
firming of most macro indicators (e.g., unemployment) and a modest
tightening of Fed policy. With respect to our market assumptions, we are
utilizing 6-8% equity market appreciation, positive fund flows, more
normalized market volatility levels and a mixed bag for market volumes
(most improved for interest rate/commodities products, lower for equities).
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Investment Themes. Regulation, with focus on capital/leverage standards
and derivatives reform; post-financial crisis workout (the beginning of
quantitative easing extraction, rising interest rates); consolidation of recent
market share gains; opportunities for more active capital management; is
further restoration of historical valuation levels warranted?
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With respect to the stocks... As we exit the financial crisis, sector valuation
is broadly (20% below historical averages with wide disparity, ranging from
the major investment banks (40% discount) to the discount retail brokers (a
35% premium). Our favorite names for 2010 include Goldman Sachs,
Morgan Stanley, Blackstone, State Street, CME Group and Charles Schwab.