UBS: China Zinc & Lead Sector

Contents  page  
Summary and investment case  3  
Industry analysis  6  
Competitive analysis  22  
Industry risks  25  
Valuation and comparables  26  
Company pages  35  
— Western Mining..................................................................................................36  
— Investment Thesis........................................................................................37  
— Western Mining’s key drivers .................................................................37  
— Key catalysts .........................................................................................40  
— Risks .....................................................................................................42  
— Valuation and basis for our price target..................................................42  
— UBS versus consensus..........................................................................42  
— Sensitivity analysis.................................................................................42  
— Risk analysis..........................................................................................43  
— Return on capital ...................................................................................43  
— Financials ..............................................................................................44  
— Valuation ...............................................................................................47  
— Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet...............................................................54  
— Investment Thesis........................................................................................55  
— Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan’s key drivers..............................................55  
— Key catalysts .........................................................................................57  
— Risks .....................................................................................................58  
— Valuation and basis for our price target..................................................59  
— UBS versus consensus..........................................................................59  
— Sensitivity analysis.................................................................................59  
— Risk analysis..........................................................................................60  
— Return on capital ...................................................................................61  
— Financials ..............................................................................................61  
— Valuation ...............................................................................................65  
— Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium ..................................................................71  
— Investment Thesis........................................................................................72  
— Fundamental weakness in a tough year.................................................72  
— Key Catalysts.........................................................................................75  
— Risks .....................................................................................................75  
— Valuation and basis of our price target...................................................76  
— UBS versus consensus..........................................................................76  
— Sensitivity analysis.................................................................................76  
— Return on capital ...................................................................................77  
— Financials ..............................................................................................78  
— Valuation ...............................................................................................82