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Spatial Dependence in House Prices: Evidence from China's Interurban Housing Market
Date:    2014-11
By:    Yunlong Gong
Peter Boelhouwer
Jan de Haan


¡°Spatial thinking¡± is increasingly popular in housing market studies and spatial dependence across properties has been widely investigated in the intra-city housing market. The contribution of this paper is to study the spatial dependence and spillover effect of house prices from an interurban perspective, referring to the spatial interaction across local housing markets. The extensive literature study concludes that following behavior, migration and equity transfer and spatial arbitrage of capital are the main behavioral reasons for interurban spatial interaction. Using a cross-sectional data set in eastern China, our empirical results from both parametric and nonparametric approaches provide strong evidence of spatial interaction in the interurban housing market. The parametric results suggest that the spatial lag model (SAR) is the best model specification to describe the interurban house price process, indicating an endogenous interaction pattern. Ignoring such interaction effect in the house price model will produce biased coefficients estimators and misleading interpretation. In SAR model, Spillover effects of explanatory variables caused by spatial interaction are calculated by partial derivative interpretation approach and are demonstrated to have the magnitude as much as half of their direct effects. Moreover, the comparison between different spatial weighted matrices reveals that the spatial interaction depends not only on distances, but also on the economic situation of each jurisdiction. Meanwhile, nonparametric approach draws a flexible relationship between spatial dependence and geographical distances. Using spline correlogram, we find monotonically declined spatial autocorrelation of house prices and explanatory variables within larger distances, whereas the significant spatial autocorrelation of OLS residuals can only be observed at short distance (60 Km). The spillover effect, being obtained from spatial covariance decomposition, is highly significant and declines within the radius of 250 Km. All the nonparametric results imply that though the house price determinants can satisfyingly account for the interurban house prices, the importance of spillover effect cannot be neglected within certain distances. That is the neighbor¡¯s housing market situation is quite useful in predicting the house price of a particular city. This study provides a good insight into explaining why the house prices in some cities always run above the level indicated by fundamentals, and highlights the importance of cooperation between local governments in making the housing policy.

Industrial Agglomeration and Dispersion in China: Spatial reformation of the "workshop of the world"


With rising labor costs in China, some scholars assert that its labor-intensive industries will succumb to latecomer economies, and China's era as the "workshop of the world" will end. There is, however, little agreement regarding whether labor-intensive industries, now concentrated along the coast, are relocating to other regions. How does agglomeration affect this relocation? How does this relocation process affect the Asian Production Network (APN)? To approach these issues, this paper examines the determinants of industrial relocation in China by using province- and city-level data from 2004 to 2010, which some scholars call the "post-Lewisian turning point." We particularly focus on the significant gap in economic development in China, especially in regard to industrial agglomeration and dispersion. The results show that the capital-labor ratio is positively related to industrial growth in the coastal areas but negatively related in the central regions. Although agglomeration economies have been weak, the absolute scale of local industry includes a positive effect. In sum, both dispersion and agglomeration forces are observed, suggesting the existence of multi-force dynamics of spatial relocation in China.

Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model


We use a broad set of Chinese economic indicators and a dynamic factor model framework to estimate Chinese economic activity and inflation as latent variables. We incorporate these latent variables into a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) to estimate the effects of Chinese monetary policy on the Chinese economy. A FAVAR approach is particularly well-suited to this analysis due to concerns about Chinese data quality, a lack of a long history for many series, and the rapid institutional and structural changes that China has undergone. We find that increases in bank reserve requirements reduce economic activity and inflation, consistent with previous studies. In contrast to much of the literature, however, we find that central-bank-determined changes in Chinese interest rates also have substantial impacts on economic activity and inflation, while other measures of changes in credit conditions, such as shocks to M2 or lending levels, do not once other policy variables are taken into account. Overall, our results indicate that the monetary policy transmission channels in China have moved closer to those of Western market economies.

Confucianism and Preferences: Evidence from Lab Experiments in Taiwan and China

This paper investigates how Confucianism affects individual decision making in Taiwan and in China. We found that Chinese subjects in our experiments became less accepting of Confucian values, such that they became significantly more risk loving, less loss averse, and more impatient after being primed with Confucianism, whereas Taiwanese subjects became significantly less present-based and were inclined to be more trustworthy after being primed by Confucianism. Combining the evidence from the incentivized laboratory experiments and subjective survey measures, we found evidence that Chinese subjects and Taiwanese subjects reacted differently to Confucianism.

Individuals, Teams and Hometowns in an Experimental Market in China
Several papers have documented that individual decision-making and team or group decision-making differ in a broad range of economic situations. We conducted a market experiment in China to examine potential differences between team and individual trades, and potential effects of subjects’ hometowns on their behaviors. Our results revealed that increasing group size from one-person to two-person strengthened the bargaining power of subjects from coastal areas but weakened that of subjects from inland areas when commodity exchanges were conducted between subjects from different areas.

Trade Integration, Market Size and Industrialization: Evidence from China's National Trunk Highway System


Large scale transport infrastructure investments connect both large metropolitan centers of production as well as small peripheral regions. Are the resulting trade cost reductions a force for the diffusion of industrial and total economic activity to peripheral regions, or do they reinforce the concentration of production in space? This paper exploits China's National Trunk Highway System as a large scale natural experiment to contribute to our understanding of this question. The network was designed to connect provincial capitals and cities with an urban population above 500,000. As a side effect, a large number of small peripheral counties were connected to large metropolitan city regions. To address non-random route placements on the way between targeted city nodes, I propose an instrumental variable strategy based on the construction of least cost path spanning tree networks. The estimation results suggest that network connections led to a reduction in GDP growth among no n-targeted peripheral counties due to reduced industrial output growth. Additional estimation results present evidence that appears consistent with the existence of core-periphery effects of trade integration as found in increasing returns trade theory and economic geography
Keywords:    Trade integration, industrialization, road infrastructure

Foreign Direct Investment across China: what should we learn from spatial dependences?


The paper investigates the importance of spatial dependences on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) localization across Chinese provinces over the 1992-2009. Based on exploratory spatial data analysis, spatial sigma-convergence and spatial Durbin specifications, we present a much clearer picture of FDI dispersion and spatial convergence across China by highlighting the spillover effects of FDI localization in Chinese provinces and regions. Our results are threefold. First, FDI convergence is more pronounced compared to the Central region, whereas the dispersion is greater when the Coastal and the Western regions are taken as reference points. Second, at the province level, FDI localization seems to present a substitutable configuration. Third, when controlling for the spatial distribution of FDI at the level of regions, it seems, conversely, that the FDI localization presents a complementary configuration. The finding resulting from the opposing configurations of the FDI localizations observed at the region and province levels seems to argue in favor of promoting FDI attractiveness policies based on regional complementarities.
Keywords:    China, Convergence, FDI, spatial panel data, spatial Durbin model

How are global value chains fragmented and extended in China's domestic production networks?


Global value chains are supported not only directly by domestic regions that export goods and services to the world market, but also indirectly by other domestic regions that provide parts, components, and intermediate services to final exporting regions. In order to better understand the nature of a countryâ

International Monetary Transmission to the Euro Area: Evidence from the US, Japan and China



There are marked differences in the effect of increases in monetary aggregates in China, Japan and the U.S. on Euro area economic and financial variables over 1999-2012. Increases in monetary aggregates in China are associated with significant increases in the world price of commodities and with increases in Euro area inflation, industrial production and exports. Results are consistent with shocks to China’s M2 facilitating domestic growth with expansionary consequences for the Euro area economy. In contrast, increases in monetary aggregates in Japan are associated with significant appreciation of the Euro and decreases in Euro area industrial production and exports. Production of goods highly competitive with European goods in Japan and expenditure switching in Japan are consistent with the results. U.S. monetary expansion has relatively small effects on the Euro area over this period compared to results reported in the literature for earlier sample periods.

Migration, urban population growth and regional disparity in China


The main objective of this paper is to study the determinants of city population growth in China during the 1990s', as well as the determinants of migrations towards cities, which constitutes the main source of urban population growth in this period. A second objective is to identify regional differences in the urban growth and migrations, that is, whether urban growth and migration patterns are different between coastal and inland provinces. Additionally, we are interested in the differences between temporary and permanent migrations towards urban areas.

Investment and financing constraints in China: does working capital management make a difference?


We use a panel of over 120,000 Chinese firms of different ownership types over the period 2000-2007 to analyze the linkages between investment in fixed and working capital and financing constraints. We find that those firms characterized by high working capital display high sensitivities of investment in working capital to cash flow (WKS) and low sensitivities of investment in fixed capital to cash flow (FKS). We then construct and analyze firm-level FKS and WKS measures and find that, despite severe external financing constraints, those firms with low FKS and high WKS exhibit the highest fixed investment rates. This suggests that good working capital management may help firms to alleviate the effects of financing constraints on fixed investment.
Keywords:    Investment; Cash flow; Financing constraints; Working capital

Are knowledge-bases enough? A comparative study of the geography of knowledge sources in China (Great Beijing) and India (Pune)


This paper focuses on the organization and geography of interactions between firms and other organizations in two industries: software and autoparts. In contrast to most recent literature in economic geography that argues that industries differ in their knowledge bases and that consequently different industries show different patterns of local-global interactions, our results show stronger differences between regions in the same industry than between industries in the same region, thus pointing out to other factors explaining the geography of innovation in that particular industry.

The Regional Distribution of Skill Premia in Urban China


We document and discuss the implications of a sharp increase in the regional dispersion of skill premia in China in recent years. This has previously been little noted or discussed. We use three urban household surveys for 1995, 2002, and 2007 and estimate skill premia at provincial and city levels. Results show an increase in the skill premium across all regions between 1995 and 2002, but only coastal regions show significant increases in skill premia between 2002 and 2007. For 2007, coastal regions also have much higher within region wage inequality and this contributes more to overall urban wage inequality than within region inequality of non-coastal regions. Using a fixed effects model at city level, we find that ownership restructuring is a significant factor in driving up skill premia during the first period, and that the ongoing process of China’s integration into the global economy plays a significant and regionally concentrated role in the second period.

Social Identity and Inequality: The Impact of China's Hokou System


They conduct an experimental study to investigate the causal impact of social identity on individuals' response to economic incentives. They focus on China‟s decades old household registration system, or the hukou institution, which categorizes citizens into urban and rural residents, and favors the former over the latter in resource allocation. Their results indicate that making individuals' hukou status salient and public significantly reduces the performance of rural migrant students on an incentivized cognitive task by 10 percent. This leads to a leftward shift of their earnings distribution â

Does Urban Proximity Enhance Agricultural Productivity in China?


We study whether rural areas close to urban centers enjoy a more productive agricultural sector than remote ones. We try to answer three questions: (1) Do rural areas close to urban centers and remote areas share the same agricultural technology? (2) Are rural areas close to urban center technically more efficient? (3) Do they enjoy a faster technical progress? The empirical examination is realized at the county level on a sample covering three provinces of the south-east of China from 2002 to 2007. Several interesting results are obtained. On the one hand, the type of agricultural technology adopted varies with the distance between the rural area and the urban center. On the other hand, urban proximity has a positive effect on agricultural productivity. Finally, our results confirm a previous finding: the most important component of total factor productivity growth in China is technical progress, whereas technical efficiency decreases it.

Convergence of European Business Cycles: A Complex Networks Approach


We examine the co-movement patterns of European business cycles during the period 1986-2011, with an obvious focal point the year 1999 that marked the introduction of the common currency, the euro. The empirical analysis is performed within the context of Graph Theory where we apply a rolling window approach in order to dynamically analyze the evolution of the network that corresponds to the GDP growth rate cross-correlations of 22 European economies. The main innovation of our study is that the analysis is performed by introducing what we call the Threshold-Minimum Dominating Set (T-MDS). We provide evidence at the network level and analyze its structure and evolution by the metrics of total network edges, network density, isolated nodes and the cardinality of the T-MDS set. Next, focusing on the country level, we analyze each individual country's neighborhood set (economies with similar growth patterns) in the pre- and post-euro era in order to assess the degree of convergence to the rest of the economies in the network. Our empirical results indicate that despite few economies' idiosyncratic behavior, the business cycles of the European countries display an overall increased degree of synchronization and convergence in the single currency era.

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Convergence of European Business Cycles: A Complex Networks Approach



We examine the co-movement patterns of European business cycles during the period 1986-2011, with an obvious focal point the year 1999 that marked the introduction of the common currency, the euro. The empirical analysis is performed within the context of Graph Theory where we apply a rolling window approach in order to dynamically analyze the evolution of the network that corresponds to the GDP growth rate cross-correlations of 22 European economies. The main innovation of our study is that the analysis is performed by introducing what we call the Threshold-Minimum Dominating Set (T-MDS). We provide evidence at the network level and analyze its structure and evolution by the metrics of total network edges, network density, isolated nodes and the cardinality of the T-MDS set. Next, focusing on the country level, we analyze each individual country's neighborhood set (economies with similar growth patterns) in the pre- and post-euro era in order to assess the degree of convergence to the rest of the economies in the network. Our empirical results indicate that despite few economies' idiosyncratic behavior, the business cycles of the European countries display an overall increased degree of synchronization and convergence in the single currency era.



On Convergence in the Spatial AK Growth Models∗
Gani Aldashev† Serik Aldashev‡ Timoteo Carletti§
19 01 2014
Abstract
Recent research in economic theory attempts to study optimal economic growth and spatial location of economic activity in a unified framework. So far, the key result of this literature - asymptotic convergence, even in the absence of decreasing returns to capital - relies on specific assumptions about the objective of the social planner. We show that this result does not depend on such restrictive assumptions and obtains for a broader class of objective functions. We also generalize this finding, allowing for the time-varying technology parameter, and provide an explicit solution for the dynamics of spatial distribution of the capital stock.
Keywords: Economic Growth; Convergence; Spatial Dynamics; Partial Differential Equations

Rethinking China's underurbanization: An evaluation of its county-to-city upgrading policy


"It has been argued in the literature that China is underurbanized in large part because of restrictions on migration. While the presence of migration barriers can help explain why existing cities fail to achieve their optimal size, it cannot explain the lack of cities. Although migration has become much easier over time, the number of cities in China has been rather stagnant. In this paper, we argue that lack of appropriate mechanisms for creating new cities is another reason for underurbanization. Under China's hierarchical governance structure, the only way to create new cities is through the centralized policy of upgrading existing counties or prefectures into cities. However, in practice the implementation of the county-to-city upgrading policy was more complicated than expected. Based on a county-level panel dataset, this paper shows that jurisdictions that were upgraded to cities prior to 1998 do not perform better relative to their counterparts that remain to be counties in terms of both economic growth and providing public services. The policy was retracted in 1997, freezing the number of county-level cities since then. This, in turn, contributes to the observed underurbanization." from authors' abstract
Keywords:    Urbanization, City creation, Governance structure, Political centralization, Development strategies,

The regional development of science and innovation in China: a brief review of current evidence on matches and mismatches

Cultural and Institutional Bifurcation: China and Europe Compared


How to sustain cooperation is a key challenge for any society. Different social organizations have evolved in the course of history to cope with this challenge by relying on different combinations of external (formal and informal) enforcement institutions and intrinsic motivation. Some societies rely more on informal enforcement and moral obligations within their constituting groups. Others rely more on formal enforcement and general moral obligations towards society at large. How do culture and institutions interact in generating different evolutionary trajectories of societal organizations? Do contemporary attitudes, institutions and behavior reflect distinct pre-modern trajectories?