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2015-03-11
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We must often come up with an initial estimate of the losses from our accidents.  This initial estimate is often not the actual amount of the losses since we do not have all the information available to determine the actual cost to cover property or injury damages.  However, as time passes, we obtain more information and we are able to come up with better estimates.  The following pattern has been observed over the past 4 years:



 

Initial

Estimate

Estimate

Estimate (Actual)

Year

Estimate

after 1 Year

after 2 Years

after 3 Years

2009

113,423,189

130,436,667

142,175,967

142,175,967

2010

125,121,325

143,889,524

156,839,581

2011

138,413,526

159,175,555

2012

152,107,854

 



In this example, assume that our estimate of losses for year 2012 will grow similar to years 2009, 2010 and 2011.  What will our estimate of losses for year 2012 be after 1 year has passed?  What will our estimate of losses for year 2012 be after 2 years have passed?  Show all work.


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