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Mobile search leads mobile ad monetisation; to exceed PC search
Mobile search contains more sophisticated search query information and should
continue to drive mobile advertising monetisation in 2015E, as traditional display
advertising struggles to monetise on mobile devices. We expect mobile search revenue
to exceed PC search revenue in 2015, driven by the fast growth of mobile search traffic
and improvements in mobile cost per click (CPC).
Mobile search connects services and penetrates to lower tier cities
Mobile search triggers additional actions and conversions in a timely fashion. Prompt
user actions following the mobile search increase the chances of a purchase and also
open up other opportunities, in our view. As smartphones, particularly those with a
price of around Rmb1,000, continue to penetrate lower tier cities, we expect more
mobile search services that are tailored to users in these cities to be launched in 2015.
Baidu: maintain Buy with US$268 PT; mobile search goes deeper at local level
We believe Baidu's mobile search will go more deeply at the local level by indexing
more local community services and life services via the launch of the Baiyang LBS
mobile search algorithm that optimises the quality of mobile search. We forecast Q414
revenue of Rmb14.10bn (+48% YoY, +4% QoQ), and non-GAAP operating margin to
contract 60.1ppt YoY to 25.0%.
Qihoo: maintain Buy rating, lower price target from US$112 to US$110
We lower our price target for Qihoo to US$110 (from US$112), reflecting a challenging
outlook for Qihoo's mobile search capability and an intensifying competitive landscape
in the mobile games business. The current share price trades near the low end of our
SOTP analysis and our bear-case assumptions. We expect PC search monetisation to
continue to ramp up in 2015 and for the mobile games business to continue to lead
mobile games industry growth.