原序列不平稳,一阶差分后平稳,我是用一阶差分后序列进行建模的,但是系数和老是大于1,不满足平稳条件。求解。跪谢!
| Null  Hypothesis: DYIELD has a unit root |   | 
| Exogenous:  None |   |   | 
| Lag  Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=12) | 
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|   |   |   | t-Statistic |   Prob.* | 
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| Augmented Dickey-Fuller  test statistic | -4.589413 |  0.0000 | 
| Test  critical values: | 1% level |   | -2.584055 |   | 
|   | 5% level |   | -1.943471 |   | 
|   | 10% level |   | -1.614984 |   | 
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| *MacKinnon  (1996) one-sided p-values. |   | 
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| Augmented  Dickey-Fuller Test Equation |   | 
| Dependent Variable:  D(DYIELD) |   | 
| Method:  Least Squares |   |   | 
| Date:  03/11/15   Time: 12:36 |   |   | 
| Sample  (adjusted): 2005M02 2015M03 |   | 
| Included  observations: 122 after adjustments |   | 
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| Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob.   | 
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| DYIELD(-1) | -0.296558 | 0.064618 | -4.589413 | 0.0000 | 
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| R-squared | 0.148263 |     Mean dependent var | 1.64E-06 | 
| Adjusted  R-squared | 0.148263 |     S.D. dependent var | 0.001775 | 
| S.E. of  regression | 0.001638 |     Akaike info criterion | -9.982835 | 
| Sum  squared resid | 0.000325 |     Schwarz criterion | -9.959851 | 
| Log  likelihood | 609.9529 |     Durbin-Watson stat | 1.884069 | 
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以上是一阶差分平稳性检验图。
      C                1.86E-07RESID(-1)^2        0.577039GARCH(-1)        0.454087以上是GARCH结果图。0.577039+0.454087>1了。求解!跪谢!