原序列不平稳,一阶差分后平稳,我是用一阶差分后序列进行建模的,但是系数和老是大于1,不满足平稳条件。求解。跪谢!
| Null Hypothesis: DYIELD has a unit root | |
| Exogenous: None | | |
| Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=12) |
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| | | | t-Statistic | Prob.* |
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Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic | -4.589413 | 0.0000 |
| Test critical values: | 1% level | | -2.584055 | |
| | 5% level | | -1.943471 | |
| | 10% level | | -1.614984 | |
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| *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. | |
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| Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation | |
| Dependent Variable: D(DYIELD) | |
| Method: Least Squares | | |
| Date: 03/11/15 Time: 12:36 | | |
| Sample (adjusted): 2005M02 2015M03 | |
| Included observations: 122 after adjustments | |
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| Variable | Coefficient | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob. |
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| DYIELD(-1) | -0.296558 | 0.064618 | -4.589413 | 0.0000 |
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| R-squared | 0.148263 | Mean dependent var | 1.64E-06 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.148263 | S.D. dependent var | 0.001775 |
| S.E. of regression | 0.001638 | Akaike info criterion | -9.982835 |
| Sum squared resid | 0.000325 | Schwarz criterion | -9.959851 |
| Log likelihood | 609.9529 | Durbin-Watson stat | 1.884069 |
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以上是一阶差分平稳性检验图。
C 1.86E-07RESID(-1)^2 0.577039GARCH(-1) 0.454087以上是GARCH结果图。0.577039+0.454087>1了。求解!跪谢!