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我用winrat做bekk模型,根据沪深300指数现货和期货5分钟高频收益率数据,求套期保值比率,编写了如下的程序,然后有两个问题想要问下:
1. 输出的结果红色部分是什么意思,程序是不是有问题,如果不是程序问题,该怎么办?
2. 最后输出结果的variance2 和COV12就是期货的方差和期现的协方差吗?根据俄淘宝比率公式,我两个相除就是套保比率了吧,可是我计算出的结果并不是很乐观。
论坛币不多啊,希望得到多多帮忙,如果成功,可以另外再加补偿
open data C:\Users\gorden\Desktop\mmm.xls
data(format=xls,org=columns) 1 35281 rs rf
set rs = rs
set rf = rf
*VAR(1) model for the mean, BEKK for the variance
system(model=var1)
variables rs rf
lags 1
det constant
end(system)
garch(p=1,q=1,model=var1,distrib=t,mv=bekk,pmethod=simplex,piters=10,robust,hmatrices=hh,rvectors=rr) / rs rf
set resid1 %regstart() %regend() = rr(t)(1)
set resid2 %regstart() %regend() = rr(t)(2)
set variance1 %regstart() %regend() = hh(t)(1,1)
set variance2 %regstart() %regend() =hh(t)(2,2)
set cov12 %regstart() %regend() = hh(t)(1,2)
MV-GARCH, BEKK - Estimation by BFGS
Convergence in 78 Iterations. Final criterion was 0.0000013 <= 0.0000100
With Heteroscedasticity/Misspecification Adjusted Standard Errors
Usable Observations 35279
Log Likelihood 54555.78466468
Variable Coeff Std Error T-Stat Signif
*******************************************************************************
1. RS{1} -0.307350783 0.006115037 -50.26147 0.00000000
2. RF{1} 0.379951570 0.006970670 54.50718 0.00000000
3. Constant -0.001885466 0.000629348 -2.99590 0.00273633
4. RS{1} -0.068794778 0.005770334 -11.92215 0.00000000
5. RF{1} -0.043607037 0.006298012 -6.92394 0.00000000
6. Constant -0.004511038 0.000653360 -6.90437 0.00000000
7. C(1,1) 0.019515051 0.008477428 2.30200 0.02133509
8. C(2,1) 0.016432140 0.001995404 8.23499 0.00000000
9. C(2,2) -0.013105171 0.003364423 -3.89522 0.00009811
10. A(1,1) 0.264350555 0.118122335 2.23794 0.02522505
11. A(1,2) 0.046099840 0.052760579 0.87376 0.38225149
12. A(2,1) -0.098992195 0.109213251 -0.90641 0.36471785
13. A(2,2) 0.184125388 0.054105521 3.40308 0.00066631
14. B(1,1) 0.957715122 0.045178598 21.19843 0.00000000
15. B(1,2) -0.005199558 0.023289669 -0.22326 0.82333628
16. B(2,1) 0.019812092 0.035989194 0.55050 0.58197570
17. B(2,2) 0.970686071 0.019161989 50.65685 0.00000000
18. Shape 4.831173243 0.091526035 52.78469 0.00000000
最佳答案
kimility 查看完整内容
matlab:
[NUM,TXT,RAM]=xls('data')
= full_bekk_mvgarch(NUM,1,1)