October 2008: Value with risks
H shares were down 15.9% in Sept. on systemic shocks. We
think current price levels provide attractive entry points for l-t
investment, but n-t moves remain a function of global/local
policy responses. A-shares rallied 18.3% from month lows on
government support, but an extended rebound seems
unlikely amid macro challenges and mounting earnings risks.
H-share market: Long-term value intact; short-term risks remain
The HSCEI broke 10,000 and lost 15.9% in Sept. amid fears of systemic
risks and dramatic developments in global markets. We believe China’s
secular growth prospects remain intact and the recent price weakness
offers strategically-sound entry points for l-t holding. That said, n-t price
reactions could be dominated by global/local policy responses against a
weakening macro backdrop, in our view. We would start to accumulate
when the HSCEI slides toward the 9,000-level (9.4X 12-month forward P/E).

[此贴子已经被wesker1999于2008-10-2 18:38:41编辑过]