Date: 05/17/15 Time: 00:03
Sample (adjusted): 2005M12 2015M03
Included observations: 112 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: LNOIL LNCURRENCY LNPRICE
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 3
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.271837 41.71635 29.79707 0.0014
At most 1 0.053550 6.186532 15.49471 0.6735
At most 2 0.000200 0.022375 3.841466 0.8810
Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.271837 35.52982 21.13162 0.0003
At most 1 0.053550 6.164157 14.26460 0.5922
At most 2 0.000200 0.022375 3.841466 0.8810
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
LNOIL LNCURRENCY LNPRICE
5.762027 -18.56883 4.109556
9.217932 -20.65573 -4.879081
4.394840 0.671480 -2.114978
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(LNOIL) -0.033834 -0.006031 -0.000553
D(LNCURRENCY) 0.003426 -0.001174 -0.000100
D(LNPRICE) -0.003367 0.010336 -0.000416
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 657.8796
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
LNOIL LNCURRENCY LNPRICE
1.000000 -3.222621 0.713214
(0.33598) (0.17505)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(LNOIL) -0.194951
(0.04165)
D(LNCURRENCY) 0.019741
(0.00595)
D(LNPRICE) -0.019403
(0.03082)
2 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 660.9617
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
LNOIL LNCURRENCY LNPRICE
1.000000 0.000000 -3.365169
(0.82132)
0.000000 1.000000 -1.265548
(0.27552)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(LNOIL) -0.250541 0.752819
(0.07830) (0.20006)
D(LNCURRENCY) 0.008920 -0.039370
(0.01115) (0.02848)
D(LNPRICE) 0.075877 -0.150977
(0.05707) (0.14581)
这个协整关系是一个吗 为什么不可以是两个的那个类似于方程组的呢