[下载]Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners

Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners
by J. Scott Armstrong

Principles of Forecasting
Springer | 2001-05-01 | ISBN: 0792379306 | 864 pages | PDF 

Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners was voted as the "Favorite Book on Forecasting for the First 25 Years" by forecasting experts including academics, practitioners, and educators. The award was presented at the 25th International Symposium on Forecasting in San Antonio, June 2005.

The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles.
The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.

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