data example;
input x@@;
m=log(x);
dif1_12=dif12(dif(m));
t=_n_;
time=intnx('month','1jan1990'd,_n_-1);
format time monyy7.;
cards;
3.533 2.826 6.830 6.006 4.239 4.004 4.475 3.768 3.533 3.768 5.652 5.299
4.790 3.738 9.463 8.412 6.075 5.491 5.841 5.140 7.360 5.140 5.257 7.360
7.711 5.725 14.954 13.669 9.463 8.762 9.697 8.178 10.514 8.178 9.580 11.683
2.571 1.987 5.025 4.674 3.272 2.922 3.038 2.688 2.922 2.688 3.856 3.856
1.524 1.289 3.047 2.696 1.875 1.758 2.110 1.641 1.875 1.641 2.110 2.344
0.941 0.706 1.882 1.647 1.294 1.059 1.059 1.059 1.412 1.059 1.176 1.412
0.679 0.679 1.472 1.359 1.019 0.793 0.793 0.793 1.359 0.793 0.453 1.132
1.080 0.600 2.400 2.040 1.320 1.320 1.560 1.200 0.960 1.080 1.920 1.680
0.839 0.599 1.677 1.557 1.198 0.958 0.958 0.958 1.198 0.958 1.198 1.318
1.076 0.598 2.032 1.912 1.195 1.076 1.434 1.076 1.434 1.076 1.315 1.554
0.837 0.598 1.554 1.195 1.076 0.956 0.837 0.837 1.195 0.837 0.956 1.195
1.555 1.435 2.990 2.512 1.794 1.674 2.033 1.555 1.794 1.555 2.033 2.273
1.434 1.076 2.749 2.390 1.673 1.554 1.912 1.554 2.390 1.554 1.195 2.151
1.314 0.956 2.628 2.508 1.911 1.553 1.433 1.433 1.194 1.433 2.389 2.030
1.241 1.117 2.481 1.985 1.737 1.489 1.489 1.365 1.985 1.365 1.241 1.985
1.312 0.835 2.505 2.147 1.312 1.550 2.028 1.431 1.312 1.431 2.028 2.028
1.356 1.972 2.095 1.726 1.479 1.726 1.233 1.109 1.479 1.233 1.602 1.972
2.847 1.779 3.440 7.236 5.575 3.321 5.219 3.321 2.372 1.898 2.491 1.898
3.314 2.486 5.326 4.734 4.498 3.551 2.604 3.551 2.841 2.959 2.012 1.420
4.138 2.010 3.665 3.665 3.192 4.020 3.074 2.719 2.128 1.774 1.419 2.247
3.070 1.771 2.244 2.480 2.126 1.771 1.889 0.709 0.827 1.417 0.827 0.472
1.727 1.497 2.188 1.152 2.533 2.533 0.921 2.418 1.727 2.303 1.382 2.533
5.069 4.032 3.802 1.959 2.189 2.419 2.765 2.074 1.959 3.226 2.304 2.650
;
proc gplot;
plot x*time;
symbol c=black i=join v=star;
proc arima;
identify var=x;
run;
proc gplot;
plot dif1_12*time;
symbol c=black i=join v=star;
proc arima;
identify var=m(1,12);
run;
estimate p=(2)(12) q=(1)(12) noint;
run;
forecast lead=6 id=time;
run;
如题,forecast预测结果与文章预测结果不一致,这个怎么改?(前面都没错,直到estimate这步输出结果完全能与文章显示的对应)看了下我预测出来的是m,文章预测的是x为6.810 5.486 7.131 3.817......现在我想预测x怎么弄,我预测的m与文章的x换算后也对不上啊