Date: 06/25/15 Time: 17:12
Sample (adjusted): 1987 2013
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend (restricted)
Series: LNGDP LNX1 LNX2
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 3
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.647285 49.88840 42.91525 0.0087
At most 1 0.431898 21.75183 25.87211 0.1497
At most 2 0.213505 6.484550 12.51798 0.4014
Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.647285 28.13657 25.82321 0.0244
At most 1 0.431898 15.26728 19.38704 0.1795
At most 2 0.213505 6.484550 12.51798 0.4014
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
LNGDP LNX1 LNX2 @TREND(84)
-65.01656 99.77226 -5.872233 5.578587
30.76203 33.50151 -9.869449 -3.640358
4.405337 8.902378 -5.294266 -0.331821
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(LNGDP) 0.007619 -0.004158 0.002166
D(LNX1) 0.002455 -0.016483 -0.000632
D(LNX2) -0.005106 -0.002606 0.010183
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 225.0779
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
LNGDP LNX1 LNX2 @TREND(84)
1.000000 -1.534567 0.090319 -0.085803
(0.21062) (0.05871) (0.00272)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(LNGDP) -0.495333
(0.15728)
D(LNX1) -0.159619
(0.40933)
D(LNX2) 0.331978
(0.36908)
2 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 232.7115
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
LNGDP LNX1 LNX2 @TREND(84)
1.000000 0.000000 -0.150165 -0.104833
(0.09216) (0.00220)
0.000000 1.000000 -0.156711 -0.012401
(0.06136) (0.00146)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(LNGDP) -0.623251 0.620812
(0.15711) (0.22989)
D(LNX1) -0.666656 -0.307245
(0.34236) (0.50096)
D(LNX2) 0.251813 -0.596747
(0.40561) (0.59351)