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GLOBALISATION AND THE NEW NATIONALISM COLLIDE
全球化与新国家主义之间的冲突

www.ftchinese.com

We are saved. Amid the rubble of the world's financial markets, we can catch sight of the foundations of a new international order. The big lesson of the crisis has been learnt: we cannot escape our mutual dependence. Global markets require multilateral rules.
我们得救了。在全球金融市场的废墟中，我们可以看到国际新秩序正在建立。我们从这场危机中吸取了重大教训：我们无法逃脱相互间的依赖。全球市场需要多边规则。

Why am I so upbeat? Well, only this week that great internationalist President George W. Bush announced he was summoning world leaders to Washington to “advance common understanding” of the causes of the crash. In the words of the White House, these leaders will frame “a common set of principles for the reform of the regulatory and institutional regimes for the world's financial sectors”. That is a bit of a mouthful, I know. But, hey, multilateralism is a long word too.
我为何如此乐观？噢，就在上周，伟大的国际主义者、美国总统乔治?布什(George W. Bush)宣布，他将召集世界各国领导人前往华盛顿，“增进”对危机成因的“共识”。用白宫的话说，这些领导人将制定“一套全球金融领域监管和机构体制改革的共同原则”。我知道，这有点拗口。不过，嗨！多边主义这个词也挺长。

Some readers, I suspect, may be a little more sceptical about the outcome of what breathless European leaders have billed as the new Bretton Woods. How, others may ask, will France's Nicolas Sarkozy and Britain's Gordon Brown share the plaudits? We cannot have two heroes of the hour – not, anyway, when one happens to be French and the other British.
我猜测，对于透不过气来的欧洲领导人所宣扬的新布雷顿森林体系(Bretton Woods)的结果，一些读者可能会多一些怀疑。其他人或许会问，法国的尼古拉?萨科齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)和英国的戈登?布朗(Gordon Brown)该如何共享喝彩？我们不能同时拥有两名主角——无论如何，不能碰巧一位是法国人，而另一位是英国人。

I would also be the first to admit that the timing of the summit, coming 10 days after the US presidential election, is not ideal. Mr Bush will have reached the last lap of a broken presidency. His successor, presumably, will attend as an observer.
我也将是承认峰会时机——美国总统大选结束10天后——并不理想的第一人。布什的总统任期将步入最后阶段，他的继任者大概会以观察者的身份出席。

Barack Obama has given his blessing to the gathering. I am not entirely sure, though, that the Democratic candidate sees eye to eye with the president on the shape of a new global system. Mr Obama, after all, has campaigned on a promise to repair the immense damage Mr Bush has done to US standing in the world.
巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)已表达了对此次会议的良好祝愿。可是，我不能完全确定，这位民主党候选人对全球新体系格局的看法会与布什完全一致。毕竟，奥巴马在竞选过程中一直承诺，要修复布什对美国世界地位造成的严重伤害。

Come to think of it, given the nasty things John McCain has been saying on the campaign trail about Mr Bush's record, it must be doubtful that he would be any more welcome ahead of inauguration day.
想想看，鉴于约翰?麦凯恩(John McCain)在竞选活动中就布什执政记录所说的那些恶言恶语，在总统就职日前，他还是否会受到欢迎，这谅必令人怀疑。

Never mind. At least the invitation list shows that the rich nations have woken up to the fact that the world is no longer a private club. Financial crises used to be things that happened to poor nations. The epicentre of this one was in the west. So the old stagers from the Group of Seven leading industrial nations will be joined not just by Russia's ever-scowling Vladimir Putin, but also by a dozen leaders from the emerging powers.
没关系。至少邀请名单说明，富裕国家已经意识到，世界不再是一个私人俱乐部。金融危机过去常常发生在贫穷国家。但本轮危机的震中就在西方。因此，此次峰会不仅有来自七国集团(G7)的那些老资格，还有俄罗斯永远板着脸的弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)，以及一些来自新兴国家的领导人。

The so-called Group of 20 may be a cumbersome group, but at least it holds up something of a mirror to the world. Many of these countries lent the rich nations the money with which they financed the boom. They deserve a say when it comes to any discussion of the lessons of the bust.
所谓的20国集团(G20)或许有些笨拙，但它至少反映了几分世界现状。其中许多国家借钱给富裕国家，为经济繁荣提供了资金。在任何有关金融危机教训的讨论中，这些国家都理应享有发言权。

If Mr Obama does win on November 4 – and the polls are beginning to point towards a landslide – one of his first acts should be to cement this change with an act of unilateral multilateralism. He should announce that, as US president, he will absent himself from the cosy conceit of the G7 and G8. He will be ready, though, to join meetings of a G13 or G20.
如果奥巴马在11月4日获胜——民调已开始显示出一边倒的迹象——他的一个首要行动应是单边采取多边主义，以巩固这一改变。他应当宣布，作为美国总统，他将缺席自以为是的G7和G8。不过，他将准备参加G13或G20的会谈。

I have to confess that here my optimism begins to ebb. This has nothing to do with Mr Obama. As president, he would have a better chance than any of his predecessors to lead an effort to reshape the global order. He also gives the impression that he understands that this may be a last chance for the US to imprint its values on such a new system.
我必须承认，我的乐观自此开始消退。这与奥巴马无关。作为总统，他将拥有比任何前任都更好的机会，领导人们重塑全球秩序。他还给人留下这样的印象：他知道，这或许是美国给此类新体系打上其价值观烙印的最后机会。

No, it is when you look closely at how most leaders have behaved in response to the storms on financial markets that the gulf emerges between lofty expressions of solidarity and miserly intent. Mr Bush's view of a new financial order is that the US sets rules and others follow them. Come to think of it, Mr Brown thinks much the same about Britain's role.
不，华丽的团结说辞和贪婪的意图之间的鸿沟，正是在你密切审视大多数领导人面对金融市场风暴的表现时显现出来的。布什对金融新秩序的看法是：美国制定规则，其它国家遵循规则。想想看，布朗对英国角色的想法如出一辙。

The mantra, in Europe at least, has been that global problems require global solutions. As a statement of fact, that is indisputable: the world was pulled back from the brink of the financial precipice only when governments of the largest economies finally agreed to act in concert.
至少在欧洲，人们一直反复强调，全球问题需要全球性的解决方案。作为一种事实陈述，这毫无争议：只是在各最大经济体政府最终同意协同行动时，才将世界从金融崩溃的边缘来了回来。

Look, though, at what they have been saying since. Mr Sarkozy wants Europe to set up its own sovereign wealth fund to buy stakes in European companies during the recession. The aim, needless to say, is to protect European, and French, industrial champions from foreign ownership. For foreign we should presumably read Arab or Asian.
可是，看看他们后来说了些什么。萨科齐希望欧洲建立自己的主权财富基金，在经济衰退期间购买欧洲公司股票。不用说，其目的是避免欧洲（和法国）的冠军工业企业沦入外国人手中。至于外国，我们大概应解读为阿拉伯或亚洲。

The French president put forward his idea, incidentally, in the very same breath as a demand that these foreigners be offered seats at the summit. We will talk to them but they cannot buy stakes in our companies? Others, such as Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, have seen an opportunity to construct a new state capitalism to shield their industries from outsiders. It will not be long before Mr Berlusconi is leading calls for Europe to shut out immigrants.
就在要求给予这些外国人峰会席位的同时，法国总统“顺带”提出了他的主张。我们将和他们会谈，但他们不能购买我们公司的股权？其他人，例如意大利总理西尔维奥?贝卢斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)，看到了建立新国家资本主义的机会，以保护本国产业不受到外界的侵害。要不了多久，贝卢斯科尼就会率先呼吁欧洲禁止移民。

Angela Merkel's German government has criticised some of these ideas. More generally, though, Berlin has been as reluctant as any to see beyond the narrowest of national interests. Mrs Merkel insisted, for example, that not a single euro of German money be used to help rescue anyone else's bank. So much for European solidarity.
安格拉?默克尔(Angela Merkel)领导的德国政府对上述一些主张提出了批评。不过，更广泛而言，德国政府和其他任何政府一样，都不愿将目光越过最狭隘的国家利益。例如，默克尔坚持，德国不会拿出哪怕一个欧元来援救其它任何国家的银行。欧洲的团结不过如此。

The underlying problem here is a big disconnection between an analysis that sees all these governments agree that they must work together and a politics that drives them to guard jealously their national prerogatives. Economics and finance may be global, but politics is still local.
这里的根本问题在于，在显示所有这些政府都同意必须共同努力的分析意见，与驱使他们谨慎维护本国特权的政治之间，存在明显脱节。经济和金融或许是全球性的，但政治仍旧是地区性的。

Step back from the maelstrom, and what the financial crisis and its aftermath (though I am not sure it is over) have done is to illuminate the two forces shaping the modern world. Globalisation now co-exists, and often collides, with rising nationalisms.
退后一步思考，金融危机及其后果（尽管我不确定危机已结束）阐明了塑造当今世界的两股力量。全球化和日益抬头的国家主义如今同时并存，而且经常发生冲突。

These nationalisms come in different forms. On the one side there are the emerging powers – China, India and the rest – that have never really felt part of a multilateral order designed and dominated by the west. Why, at the moment when they are becoming great powers, should they surrender sovereignty to others?
这些国家主义形式各异。一方面是中国和印度等新兴强国——它们从未真正感到自己属于由西方设计并主宰的多边秩序。那么，在他们逐渐变成强国之时，他们为什么要将主权交与它国？

Alongside them are the rich nations that, while speaking the language of mutual interest and dependency, are just as jealous of their present privileged positions. They are all for a more inclusive global order; just as long, that is, as the addition of new members to the club in no way dilutes their own authority.
另一方面是那些富裕国家——它们嘴里说着共同利益和相互依赖，却时刻注意保护自己现有的特权地位。他们完全赞成建立一个包容范围更广的全球秩序；但前提是，俱乐部增加新成员不会削弱他们的权威。

By now, as you will have guessed, my optimism has been more or less drained. The financial crisis has described a much broader collision between the mutual dependence of globalisation and the rise of nationalisms. Thus far no one has owned up to the danger. The summit would be a success if the leaders did no more than reach the beginning of understanding.
如今，正如你会猜到的，我的乐观基本上已耗尽了。金融危机显现出全球化的相互依赖与国家主义的抬头之间更广泛的冲突。迄今尚未有人坦率承认这一危险。只要各国领导人能达成谅解的开始，峰会就算是取得了成功。