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Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems
nelsoncwlee
1481 5
2015-07-03
受到警告
Book Description[size=0.86em]Publication Date: June 12, 2009
In Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems acknowledged risk authority Tony Cox shows all risk practitioners how Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) can be used to improve risk management decisions and policies. It develops and illustrates QRA methods for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems – systems that have behaviors that are just too complex to be modeled accurately in detail with high confidence – and shows how they can be applied to applications including assessing and managing risks from chemical carcinogens, antibiotic resistance, mad cow disease, terrorist attacks, and accidental or deliberate failures in telecommunications network infrastructure.  This book was written for a broad range of practitioners, including decision risk analysts, operations researchers and management scientists, quantitative policy analysts, economists, health and safety risk assessors, engineers, and modelers.

Editorial ReviewsReviewFrom the reviews:
“The new results of this book include many real life applications especially in health management. … More applications to the specialists are given throughout the book. The book is written for practitioners but I think it is quite useful for anyone interested in risk analysis and assessment. … Concluding, this is one of the best books on quantitative risk assessment. I strongly recommended it to anyone interested in reducing risk in this highly volatile world.” (E. Ahmed, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1168, 2009)
“The book is devoted to the development of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems. … This book is written for practitioners using rational quantitative risk analysis in various areas. The methods and strategies included are good enough to help one make effective risk management decisions.” (Krzysztof Szajowski, Mathematical Reviews, Issue 2012 c)


From the Back Cover"Tony Cox is among the most active and creative architects and users of quantitative risk analysis. This book is full of interesting equations, conceptual designs and conundrums that characterize QRA and its applications to risk management. Informed by trenchant thinking and perceptive writing, this is a timely resource for the risk analysis community."  Michael R. Greenberg, Professor and Faculty Dean, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University

"Tony Cox's impressive book applies both simple and cutting-edge risk models to a variety of fields.  It demonstrates creative but tractable ways to model real-world problems of great practical importance regarding biological, engineering, and social risks.  This book deserves to become influential and widely read by those seeking practical state-of-the-art methods for risk analysis." Vicki Bier, Professor, Engineering Physics and Industrial Engineering & Director - Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis, University of Wisconsin-Madison

"Risk analysis is as old as the first cave dweller mulling how to survive winter or woolly mammoths. It remains essential today in our world of accidents, disease, climate change and terrorism.  But some say that quantitative risk analysis is too complicated or time-consuming, and that qualitative intuition is a better way to make decisions.  In this ambitious and meticulous book, Tony Cox makes the case that quantitative risk analysis is actually the antidote to uncertainty and complexity, superior to other modes of thinking, both practical and effective.  Cox raises the bar on a vital debate."  Jonathan B. Wiener, Duke University, and President, Society for Risk Analysis (2008)

"This is an excellent, approachable read for any risk manager. Simple but devastating examples show how not to do risk analysis.  Insightful case studies apply quantitative risk assessment to natural, random threats, and to terrorist threats posed by an intelligent adversary.  This is a timely and much-needed resource for skeptical consumers of risk analysis advice and products, and for those who need to improve upon current, dangerously simplistic, guidance on threat assessment and risk management."  Gerald G. Brown, Distinguished Professor, Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

"This book provides a refreshing new perspective on quantitative risk assessment, and should be of interest to a wide range of practitioners. Drawing substantially on his own work, Tony Cox demonstrates that QRA can be applied even to challenging and complex systems."   Suresh Moolgavkar, Vice President and Principal Scientist, Exponent Scientific Consulting; Professor of Epidemiology, University of Washington

Product Details
  • File Size: 1979 KB
  • Print Length: 436 pages
  • Publisher: Springer; 2009 edition (June 12, 2009)
  • Publication Date: June 12, 2009









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kychan
2015-7-3 13:26:38
上传论坛已有资料
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-484576-1-1.html
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lasgpope
2015-7-3 15:19:22
kychan 发表于 2015-7-3 13:26
上传论坛已有资料
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-484576-1-1.html
感谢大师举报。
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kychan
2015-7-3 15:51:50
lasgpope 发表于 2015-7-3 15:19
已作禁言三天处理，感谢大师举报。
请lasgpope做出处罚时也要严守人大经济论坛用户手册守则

- 不得发布灌水贴、不得重复发帖，违者重罚; 根据人大经济论坛用户手册 :
   2-1 灌水对灌水行为的认定：如发布重复贴、发布资料与论坛已有重复、重复发布同质资源.

-  严守论坛禁止灌水行为，对于灌水的处罚将按照轻重分为删帖、警告、禁止发言（7天到1个月）、
扣除论坛币（20-100）、扣除各项指数等处罚
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guorenda
2015-7-3 17:44:35
真有点感叹，外国做研究的人真多啊
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lasgpope
2015-7-4 00:29:26
kychan 发表于 2015-7-3 15:51
请lasgpope做出处罚时也要严守人大经济论坛用户手册守则

- 不得发布灌水贴、不得重复发帖，违者重罚; ...
之前已对楼主进行过多次劝阻和警告，但是收效甚微。因此，对其作禁言处理符合论坛规章制度。虽然量化投资板块对于重复发帖行为原则上不予处罚，但我个人认为对于楼主这样的屡次且带有明显故意倾向的行为应当在豁免范围以外。对于量化投资板块的管理，我的思路是好帖重奖，坏帖一般不予干预（既不奖励，也不予处罚），但也绝不会和稀泥放纵这种行为。既然我的理念得不到支持，只好向星野提出辞职。眼不见为净，以后再也不做坏人了，哈哈。。。[em01][em01]
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