China Bets Highways Will Drive Its Growth

中国的赌注: 高速公路将驱动增长

随着全球越来越多的国家卷入金融风暴，中国希望增加基础设施投资将会有助于其保持长期的经济增长与社会繁荣。

As more of the world falls into financial turmoil, China is hoping that an infrastructure spending spree can help sustain its long record of expansion and rising prosperity.

中国本周推出了5,860亿美元的刺激经济方案，其中大部分资金将流向公路、铁路和机场建设。据官方估计，在过去30年中，基础设施支出的平均年增速一直保持在20%左右，这是一部有效推动中国经济高速增长的可靠引擎。

Much of the $586 billion stimulus package China unveiled this week will go toward building highways, railroads and airports. Already, according to official estimates, infrastructure spending had been increasing by an average of 20% annually for the past 30 years -- a tried and true engine that has helped power the Chinese economy's explosive growth.
 

这个成果在中国西南部山区的綦江县可以清楚地感受到：新建的高速公路将綦江到重庆的乘车时间从2个多小时减少到45分钟。这推动了本地企业的发展，也让外地游客得以周末来这里休闲。许多村庄现在都在重新铺设路面，以进一步改善交通条件。现在，当地农民已不必再背着竹篓销售自产的四川花椒，直接把农产品打包装进卡车就行了。这里的人均年收入2007年达到了约4,100元（约合600美元），高于3年前的3,030元（约合450美元）。

The results are evident in this hilly corner of China's southwest, where a new expressway has cut travel times to the big city of Chongqing to 45 minutes from more than two hours. That's inspired local businesses to expand and outsiders to look for weekend retreats. Many villages are now resurfacing dirt roads to improve connections and ease travel further. Rather than selling their crop of Sichuan peppercorns from baskets on their backs, local farmers are loading them by the sackful onto trucks. Average annual incomes here reached about 4,100 yuan ($600) in 2007, up from 3,030 yuan ($450) three years ago.

新的道路是定于今年完工的全国高速公路主干网的一部分。这一路网由12条贯通中国南北或东西的高速公路组成，它使数百万人与更广阔的世界联系到了一起，人们从中也可以窥见中国新的宏大支出计划有望带来的影响。

The new road is part of the backbone of China's national highway system, scheduled for completion this year. Twelve major routes cross the country from north to south and east to west, connecting millions to the wider world and showing the kind of impact China wants from its huge new spending program.

中国汽车化的速度令人震惊，在过去10年里共建设了30,000英里的高速公路。中国计划到2020年时拥有53,000英里的高速公路，超过目前美国州际公路47,000英里的长度。中国的国土面积同美国基本相同。

The speed of China's motorization is stunning -- some 30,000 miles of expressways were built in the past decade. Plans call for China's highway system to stretch 53,000 miles by 2020, surpassing the 47,000 miles of interstate roads in the U.S. currently. China has roughly the same land area as the continental U.S.

与美国始于上世纪60年代，基本完结于80年代的高速公路黄金时期不同，中国的高速公路建设热潮发生在中国仍是一个农村人口占多数的贫穷国家这一背景之下，中国只有约10%的人持有驾照。

Unlike the golden era of the American highway -- which started in the 1960s and was mostly complete by the 1980s -- this road boom is taking place in a poor, largely rural country where only about 10% of the population have their driver's licenses.

怀疑中国大举投资基础设施不够明智的人士担心，新的道路和建筑可能得不到有效利用，属于浪费金钱。在最贫穷的地区，一些高速公路上常常车辆稀少，农民都将粮食铺在道路上烘晒。

Skeptics of China's infrastructure spree worry that new roads and buildings are going unused and will end up being a waste of money. In the poorest areas, some highways are often empty but for the crops farmers spread out on them to dry in the sun.

但中国交通基础设施的扩张常常不是对经济增长做出反应，而是刺激增长的成份更多一些。在山区路边用白漆喷出的一条标语总结了这个理念：“经济要发展，道路要先行。”

But China's expansion of transport infrastructure is often intended less to respond to growth than to stimulate it. A roadside slogan here, splashed in white paint on a rocky mountainside, sums up that philosophy: 'For the economy to develop, transport must start off first.'

重庆社科院区域经济学家李勇说，你现在可以说这是浪费，但从长期来看这不是浪费。
Says Li Yong, a regional economist at the Chongqing Academy of Social Sciences, 'You can say it is wasteful now, but it is not wasteful over the long term.'

中国经济常常被认为是出口导向型。这也不足为奇：中国去年出口额逾1万亿美元，占全球总出口额的9%。但实际上中国的国内投资对经济增长的推动作用要大得多。中国近年来年均增长率为10%，而公共建设工程、住宅到工厂设备等等方面的开支占其中的4-6个百分点。这类投资一般会比出口更稳定，而现在随着全球经济减缓，国内投资也提供了很好的缓冲。

Indeed, while China's economy is often seen as driven by exports -- not surprising for a country that exported more than $1 trillion of goods last year, or 9% of the world total -- domestic investment contributes far more to growth. In recent years, spending on everything from public works to housing to factory equipment has accounted for about four to six percentage points of China's 10% average annual growth rate. Such investments tend to be more stable than exports and are now providing a welcome cushion as the global economy slows.

中国并非全然不受其贸易伙伴遭受危机的影响，但其经济增长速度还是高于任何其他主要经济体。大多数预测都认为中国2008年经济增长将减缓至9%，2009年为8%左右。相比之下，据IMF的预测，欧美和日本这些发达经济体今年增幅将仅为1%左右，2009年还会出现收缩。

China isn't immune to the woes of its trading partners, but it is still growing faster than any other major economy. Most forecasts call for China's growth to slow to 9% or so this year, and around 8% next year. By comparison, the world's advanced economies, including the U.S., Europe and Japan, are expected to grow by little more than 1% this year, and to contract in 2009, according to IMF forecasts.

花旗集团(Citigroup)驻上海经济学家Ken Peng说，投资为经济增长设定了一个相当高的底线，发挥了经济稳定器的作用。一个担忧是：基础设施投资已经以很快的速度增长，可能很难进一步加速。

'Investment puts a pretty high floor on growth. It acts as an economic stabilizer,' says Ken Peng, an economist for Citigroup in Shanghai. One worry: Infrastructure investment is growing so fast already that it may be hard to accelerate it further.

就像美国州际公路系统(U.S. Interstate Highway System)从根本上改变了美国经济一样，中国的新建高速公路也正开始从大大小小各方面改变人们的生活。公路减少了运输时间，降低了一些地方的成本，令工业更具竞争力。迁移更容易了，人们得以去别的地方寻找机会。全然不同的地方商品和服务市场被结合起来，形成地区性和全国性的市场。这让消费者有了更多选择，令公司得以扩张。印度等基础设施建设速度较慢的发展中国家出现的这类变化较少。

Just as the U.S. Interstate Highway System radically altered the American economy, China's new expressways are starting to change lives in ways big and small. Roads have cut transport times, driven down costs in some places and made industry more competitive. Migration is easier, allowing people to look for opportunities elsewhere. Disparate local markets for goods and services are being knit together into regional and national markets. That gives consumers more choices, and allows companies to expand. Developing countries that have been slower to build infrastructure, like India, have seen fewer of these changes.

綦江县是个农业县，位于中国西部商业中心重庆市南部，是通向多山的贵州省的一个门户。2002年，一条新的南北向高速公路开通，2005年又有一条东西向的支线公路建成，从那以后，綦江县已经成了一个交通枢纽。

The rural county of Qijiang lies south of Chongqing, the commercial center of western China, on the way to the mountainous province of Guizhou. Since a new north-south expressway opened in 2002, followed by a spur line running east to west in 2005, Qijiang has become something of a transport hub.

34岁的杨政华（音）行色匆匆，他大多数时候都是从綦江开车去重庆，将满满一车农产品送到市里的一个批发市场。现在，他开车走新的高速公路，就可以早点到达市场，而早晨的需求最旺盛。由于路程短了，他最大的一笔开支－－运费也从每车约人民币600元下降到100元左右（约合15美元）。

Yang Zhenghua, a genial 34-year-old with a buzz cut, makes the run from Qijiang to Chongqing most days, bringing a truckload of farm produce to a wholesale market in the city. Traveling on the new highway, he can now get to the market earlier in the day, when demand is highest. The shorter journey has trimmed transport costs -- his biggest single expense -- by around 100 yuan ($15), to around 600 yuan ($90) a load.

14年来，杨政华把綦江周围的各种农产品运出去，向农民供应种子并提前预定收割下来的农产品。去年，他开始从几个农民手里租下土地，自己种庄稼。他指着自己种着玉米、茄子和辣椒的地说，如果没有高速公路，我们肯定不敢这么干。他在这个地方雇了20个农民替他干活，还要在其他地方增加人手。还有一些当地农民在扩大木瓜和花椒的种植园，这两种都是价值较高的作物，现在能打入大城市的市场，所以就能大量批发。

For 14 years, Mr. Yang has distributed produce from around Qijiang, supplying farmers with seeds and ordering crops in advance. Last year, he started raising crops himself on land leased from several farmers. 'Without the highway, we wouldn't dare to develop this,' he says, gesturing toward his fields of corn, eggplant and chili peppers. He has 20 farmers working for him on this site, and he is adding more at other locations. Other local farmers are expanding plantations of papaya and Sichuan peppercorns, both high-value crops that can now be sold in bulk because of access to big-city markets.

20世纪90年代初期，中国就出台了第一批全国公路系统的计划。但直到1998年才真正开始实施，当时正值亚洲金融危机，地方政府纷纷通过基础设施建设开支来支持经济增长。

China laid out its first plans for a national highway system in the early 1990s. Things didn't really take off until 1998, when local governments seized on infrastructure spending as a way to support growth in the midst of the Asian financial crisis.

基于多种因素，建筑工程进展迅速。与其他亚洲国家一样，中国历来都有着很高的储蓄率，因此中国的金融系统资金充足。银行均为国有，确保了大量贷款得以流向政府重点保障的基础设施建设工程。有关当局收取养路费，提供了稳定的收入以抵扣成本，进一步减轻了财政负担。而由于中国所有土地最终都是归政府所有，有关当局得以迅速上马新公路项目，很少遭遇阻力。

Construction moved quickly thanks to a combination of factors. Like other Asian nations, China has historically had a high savings rate, so its financial system was flush with cash. The banks are state-controlled, ensuring that much lending could be channeled to government priorities like infrastructure. Authorities' embrace of road tolls further eased the financial burden, by providing steady revenues to recoup costs. And since all land in China is ultimately owned by the government, authorities could push through new road projects quickly with a minimum of dissent.

在交通部规划研究院任职的徐丽说，别的国家很难照搬我们的方法。

'Our system is very difficult to copy,' says Xu Li of the Transport Planning and Research Institute in Beijing.

中国高速公路系统中的问题尚未完全消除。限速和交通法规执行不到位，所以在新建高速公路上开车可能会很恐怖。中国的交通事故死亡率居世界前几位，尽管死亡人数近年来一直在下降。卡车超载现象严重，这也是个问题，因为超载车辆对路面的磨损更快。

Not all of the kinks in China's highway system have been worked out yet. Speed limits and traffic regulations are poorly enforced, so driving on the new expressways can be harrowing. China has one of the world's highest rates of traffic deaths, though fatalities have been declining in recent years. Weight limits on trucks are frequently flouted, a problem because overburdened vehicles wear down road surfaces more quickly.

地方公路网络也没有跟上新建高速公路的快速发展。比如，一旦下了高速公路，出了綦江县的主城区，在石子路和土路上的车速会明显减慢──当夏末的大雨把道路弄得一片泥泞时，速度还会更慢。

Local road networks also haven't kept up with the rapid spread of new expressways. Once off the highway and out of the main town in Qijiang, for example, the speed of travel on gravel and dirt roads slows significantly -- and can be even slower when late-summer rains turn them to mud.

綦江县隆盛镇负责道路建设的官员王贤陆（音）说，我们的路现在基本上都是土路。他说，他正在努力改变这种现状。在这里，装运铺路用的石头和沥青的卡车随处可见，常常会造成村子里交通拥堵，因为这些卡车试图挤过已经满是摩托车和驴车的狭窄小路。

'Our roads now are mostly dirt,' says Wang Xianlu, who is in charge of road building for the little town of Longsheng, in Qijiang county. Mr. Wang says he's working to change that. Trucks carrying stones and asphalt to resurface roads are a common sight here, and they often cause traffic jams in the villages as they try to squeeze through narrow lanes already crowded with motorbikes and donkey carts.

交通的便利可能会帮助当地经济减少对种田的依赖。39岁的刘照华（音）有两个孩子，她在綦江县风景区丁山湖旁开了一家旅馆。从重庆到这里的游客越来越多。她说，生意越来越好，特别是这几年高速公路修好了之后。她的旅馆已经扩大到40多个房间，每年的收入大约有人民币9万元（合1.3万美元），而10年前她刚起步的时候年收入只有人民币1万元。她说，我打算今年翻修房子，这样以后就能挣更多钱了。

Better transport could help make the local economy less dependent on farming. Liu Zhaohua, a 39-year-old mother of two, runs a rural hotel on Dingshan Lake, a scenic spot in Qijiang county that has been getting more visitors from Chongqing. 'Business is getting better and better, especially in recent years after the highway was completed,' she says. Her operation has expanded to more than 40 rooms, and pulls in about 90,000 yuan (about $13,000) a year, compared with just 10,000 yuan when she started out a decade ago. 'I plan to renovate our building this year so we can earn more money in the future,' Ms. Liu says.

随着中国高速公路系统的建设接近尾声，政府的重点开始转移到在大兴土木期间相对受到较少关注的问题上。各地方政府和私营企业负责不同的区段，这种做法有助于道路的快速建设，却不利于统一的、全国性的管理。比如，在年初的冰雪灾害中，只有某些高速公路段上的积雪被清除。

As China's highway network nears completion, the government's focus is shifting to issues that got less attention in the headlong rush to build. The method that helped get roads built so quickly, in which a hodgepodge of local governments and private companies took charge of different sections, has been a liability in managing what is supposed to be a unified national system. During heavy snows last winter, for example, only some stretches of certain highways were plowed.

尽管新建高速公路降低了企业的运输成本，但批评人士说，或许还有进一步降低成本的空间。比如，中国运输和储存货物的总成本占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重从1991年的24%降到了目前的18%左右。但是在过去几年中，降幅却并不大，原因之一是高速公路收费高，铁路运输服务质量差。相比之下，美国每年的物流成本占GDP的10%左右。

Though the new highways have lowered transport costs for businesses, critics say there is probably room to push them down further. For instance, the total cost of moving and storing goods around the country has fallen from 24% of gross domestic product in 1991 to around 18% now. Yet it hasn't moved much in the last few years, in part because of high tolls on the highways and poor service on the rails. The U.S., by contrast, keeps logistics costs to around 10% of GDP annually.

随着空气质量的恶化，过去十年来汽车保有量的爆炸式增长近年来也受到公众更多的关注。据世界银行和中国环境保护部门去年联合公布的报告，中国是世界上最大的二氧化硫排放国；这种气体是造成城市空气污染的主要成分，在中国，空气污染每年导致35万-40万人死亡。

The last decade's explosive growth in automobile use has also come under more public scrutiny in recent years, as air quality worsens. China is the world's biggest emitter of sulfur dioxide, a major component of the urban air pollution that causes 350,000 to 400,000 premature deaths a year in China, according to a joint report last year by the World Bank and the Chinese environmental agency.

尽管如此，修路的经济效益却是真真切切的，有时甚至不可思议。亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)驻北京的交通运输专家张文（音）回忆他去西安附近一个村子的经历，当地的养鸡户在一条新的高速公路开通之后就走上了致富路。为什么养鸡呢？张文说，因为新路不再颠簸不平，农户可以把鸡蛋运到市场上销售，而不会在路上把鸡蛋颠破。他说，农民知道怎样利用便利条件。

Still, the economic benefits have been real, and sometimes surprising. Zhang Wen, a transport specialist for the Asian Development Bank in Beijing, recalls visiting a village near the western city of Xi'an, where chicken farms had taken off after a new highway opened. Why chickens? Since the new road wasn't so bumpy anymore, farmers could take eggs to market without them getting broken along the way, says Mr. Zhang. 'Farmers know how to take advantage of efficiencies.'

华尔街日报 ANDREW BATSON 11-11-2008

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-11-12 3:26:17编辑过]