Macroeconomic forecasts: slowdown til 2010, GDP trough at 6%
􀂄 一Major downside risks to FAI: real estate, manufacturing and mining
􀂄 二Export growth to fall below zero next year
􀂄 三Fiscal stimulus has a limit – deficit unlikely to exceed 2.5% of GDP
􀂄 四Misperceptions about RMB4tn package
􀂄 五Impact of policy stimuli on commodities
􀂄 六Impact of monetary and real estate policies
􀂄 七Inland provinces should outpace coastal regions
􀂄 八Consumption elasticity to GDP cycle
􀂄 九Market strategy