哦谢谢,这个我知道的,就是那个进行ARCH或着GARCH 进行拟合要不要满足什么条件的才能成立的?
比如我现在做的这个(如下表)
Dependent Variable: BB
Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt)
Date: 12/15/08 Time: 14:54
Sample(adjusted): 1994:04 2008:09
Included observations: 174 after adjusting endpoints
Convergence achieved after 23 iterations
MA backcast: 1994:03, Variance backcast: ON
Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.
AR(1) 0.180268 0.042597 4.231900 0.0000
MA(1) -0.802772 0.030011 -26.74900 0.0000
Variance Equation
C 4.56E-05 8.30E-06 5.485613 0.0000
ARCH(1) 1.725688 0.176165 9.795869 0.0000
R-squared 0.284871 Mean dependent var -9.15E-05
Adjusted R-squared 0.272251 S.D. dependent var 0.018283
S.E. of regression 0.015597 Akaike info criterion -5.767199
Sum squared resid 0.041356 Schwarz criterion -5.694577
Log likelihood 505.7463 Durbin-Watson stat 2.009048
Inverted AR Roots .18
Inverted MA Roots .80
上面的ARCH(1)对应的1.725688>1是不是不行的啊?