• The Consumer Conundrum. Consumer discretionary stocks have been market leaders for five years because they were able to widen their profit margins with only modest sales growth; their primacy is now challenged by disappointing retail sales numbers and rising inventories; prospects for better wages in 2016 suggest it is too early to give up on top-line growth, but the real story is one of a secular shift in how and where consumers choose to spend; with overall valuations rich and intrasector dispersion low, stock selection is important. Consider concentrating consumer exposure among those who have demonstrated secular growth trends and forgoing perceived “cheap” retailers, which could prove to be frustrating investments as spending preferences change.