高盛:2009年中国股票投资策略:金融危机给中国呈现的机会(Crisis presents opportunities)

(中文和英文两个版本),时间为10月30日(

两个版本时间有点久了,但是考虑到是相同的中英文版的,不失为金融翻译学习及投资实务的好报告,所以提供下载.两份报告各95页.

中文简介:

危机过后可能出现机遇
历史表明危机往往会带来具吸引力的长期投资机会。我们认为，拥有强劲增长潜
力和雄厚的财政/外汇储备实力的中国仍是全球最佳投资市场之一。我们预计，
2009 年H 股和A 股市场的股价潜在回报率分别为53.4%和11.0%，上行空间将
主要受到全球/国内增长企稳迹象出现后估值倍数的正常化推动。
重整旗鼓、蓄势待发、然后反弹
宏观经济的下滑将给盈利带来压力，但较低的估值、市场每股盈利和汇率预期的
下调、市场情绪的低迷和政策的灵活性应会提供一定的下行保护。09 年上半年市
场可能依然震荡，但我们认为，下半年当宏观经济增长的下行趋势可能触底时，
市场更有可能出现显著的反弹行情。
行业策略：上半年消费板块；下半年周期性板块
上半年我们看好拥有盈利保障和具有防御性的日常消费品、互联网/传媒、电信和
基础设施板块，下半年则从贝塔值的角度转向金融/周期性板块。从投资题材来
看，我们认为，现金充裕、财务状况稳健的公司应会在流动性紧张的环境中取得
出色表现。

英文简介:

Crisis aftermath could create opportunities
History shows crises tend to present attractive long-term investment
opportunities. We believe China still represents one of the best
investment cases globally given its strong growth potential and robust
fiscal/external positions. We forecast 53.4% and 11.0% potential price
returns for the H- and A-share markets respectively in 2009, and believe
the upside will primarily be driven by multiples normalization amid
emerging signs of global/domestic growth stabilization.
Regroup, recharge, then recovery
A macro downturn will weigh on earnings, but we see a degree of
downside protection in the form of cheap valuations, lowered
consensus EPS and FX forecasts, depressed market sentiment and
policy flexibility. False starts may take place in 1H09, but we think
meaningful recovery is more likely to surface in 2H when downward
macro growth momentum potentially reaches a trough.
Sector strategy: 1H consumer; 2H cyclicals
We prefer consumer staples, internet/media, telcos and infrastructure in
1H for earnings security and defensiveness, before turning to financials
and cyclicals for beta in 2H. By theme, we think cash-rich, financially
sound companies should prevail in a liquidity-strained environment.

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-4 11:41:46编辑过]

xc405  金钱 +50  魅力 +1  经验 +1  好文章好贴 2009-2-11 22:26:28