资源类别：报告

资源格式: PDF 36 Pages 英 1.1M

作者：Morgan Stanley

Key Global Themes for 2009

1. Adjusting Strategies for New Policy to Find a Tactical Edge Caron 3

What’s Different for 2009 3

The Great Balancing Act of 2009 4

2009 Outlook and Primary Metrics for a New Regime 4

2. Duration: Global Policy to Collapse Rates Further, Stay Net Long 6

US – Strong Policy Response Favors Being Long Duration Stipanov/Goncalves/Cashyn 6

EUR and UK – Recovery Priced In Too Soon Roberts 6

Japan – Demand to Overwhelm Supply Lim 7

3. Curves: Evaluating New Drivers for the Curve in 2009 8

A Potential Change in the Way the Curve Behaves Mutkin/Guzzo 8

Evaluating Opportunities for Yield Curves Mutkin/Guzzo 8

4. Spreads: Further Tightening for Liquid Rate Spread Products 11

GSE Mortgages and Debt: Running with Policymakers Rao/Gordon 11

Swap Spread Dislocations Have Increased Goncalves/Cashyn 12

European Swap Spreads – Government Paper over Libor Bradley 13

Munis Suffer the Same Fate as Other Spread Product Rordorf 14

Global Inflation – BEI to Recover as Public Sector Re-Levers Goncalves/Roberts/Cashyn 15

5. Vol: Dependent on Rate Level and Curve Shape in 2009 16

Vol to Remain High in 2009 Stipanov/Gargh/McGraw 16

US – Technicals Supportive for Now Stipanov/McGraw/Azarias 17

EUR/UK – Macro Drivers Neutral; Technical Factors Bullish Gargh/Roberts 18

6. Global Supply: Unprecedented Fiscal Stimulus = A Flood of Supply

UST Supply – Weighing on the Belly Goncalves/Cashyn 20

EUR Supply – Larger Than Anticipated Guzzo 21

UK Supply – A Four-Year Flood of Gilts Roberts 22

Japan Supply – Expecting JPY10 Trillion Increase Lim/Ito 23

7. AXJ Interest Rates: Reacting to Aggressive Policy Response Liu/Arora 24

Appendix

1. US Government Actions 28

2. European Government Actions 30

3. Asian Government Actions 32

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