M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H

GEMs Equity Strategy
2009 Outlook: Fight Back,
Particularly in Asia

We expect a fight back from GEM equities in 2009
and think Asia will outperform EMEA and LatAm.
Our scenario-weighted target price for MSCI EM is 810
for 2009. This represents 62% upside from current
levels (similar to 1993 or 1999). We therefore retain our
13th October maximum overweight recommendation.
In our view, the secular bull market in EM equities,
dating back to the Asian crisis, is intact. MSCI EM
has returned 112% over the ten-year horizon versus
-6% for MSCI World (US$). The structural increase in
ROE over the cycle is the key driver. We expect a 5
percentage point fall in ROE to 12% in our base case,
with a shorter and less acute earnings recession in EM
than in DM, not least due to policy response. However,
we also highlight risks to our view (US dollar rallies
further, larger earnings recession, and structural
de-rating of global equities) which could drive prices to
our Bear Scenario target price of 415 (-20%).

283098.pdf
大小:(726.53 KB)

只需: 20 个论坛币  马上下载

Entrepreneurship and Innovation in China- 1978-2008, 20年中国企业创业及革新

THE ASCENT OF CHINA after some 500 years of inward-looking stagnation is the
central phenomenon of today's global economy. China is not yet the richest nation on
earth, but, in Adam Smith's words, it is the most thriving. In a replay of a young
America's relationship with England, moreover, China is now on a path to challenge the
United States in every measure of national power.
In one way or another China dominates the discussion across many realms of
culture and commerce. From international trade, monetary policy, and intellectual
property to energy use and military power, and from the hype of the Beijing Olympics to
the surge of Asian food, dress, and style in the West, China factors centrally in many of
our most profound public policy debates and everyday conversations. Americans are
filled with a mix of awe and anger over China. Visitors are astounded at its unrivaled

growth and palpable energy and optimism. Detractors believe China has driven up oil
prices, manipulated its currency, stolen American jobs, oppressed its own citizens, and
is preparing for an inevitable clash with the U.S.

283099.pdf
大小:(431.36 KB)

只需: 10 个论坛币  马上下载

2100年中国碳排放预测

Introduction...............................................................................................................................2
Some previous scenarios............................................................................................................3
ERI / LBNL 2020...................................................................................................................4
ERI 2050 ...............................................................................................................................5
Decarbonising the UK............................................................................................................5
Our scenario approach ...............................................................................................................6
Choosing a global budget.......................................................................................................6
Which apportionment method?..............................................................................................7
Cumulative emissions budgets for China ..............................................................................9
From budgets to trajectories.................................................................................................10
The Tyndall China scenarios in detail .....................................................................................12
Scenario 1: 70GtC 2020.......................................................................................................14
Scenario 2: 111GtC 2030L ..................................................................................................16
Scenario 3: 90GtC 2020.......................................................................................................17
Scenario 4: 111GtC 2030.....................................................................................................19
Next steps................................................................................................................................20
Acknowledgement ...................................................................................................................21
References...............................................................................................................................21

283100.pdf
大小:(1.16 MB)

 马上下载

2025年之前中国与世界经济展望

Contents
Section 1. Preface 2
Section 2. Executive Summary 5
Section 3. Regional Ties 11
Section 4. Unfulfilled Promise 27
Section 5. New Silk Road 43
Section 6. Comparing the Three Scenarios 57
Section 7. Conclusion 65
Annex: Recommended Reading 68
Acknowledgements 70
Project Team Members 72

283101.pdf
大小:(8.32 MB)

 马上下载

好贵

很好啊， 多谢了啊， 很有价值的材料哦

thanks so much

灰常感谢！

这年头啊